Will Trump agree to Iranian demands by June 30? [ resolves 2026-06-30 (27D) ]
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 34.0% | $12K | $80K | C | 0x639d8b…67ff | ||
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 27.0% | $22K | $93K | C | 0xed25d0…8862 | ||
| Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 16.0% | $186 | $2.1K | C | 0xfa0884…c409 | ||
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 3.6% | $17K | $145K | C | 0x41ba32…37db | ||
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 3.3% | $5.2K | $140K | C | 0x1be62d…7c9f |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran by May June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran refers to any official U.S. or U.S. military initiative or commitment to materially reduce the total number of U.S. military personnel stationed or deployed in the Middle East, Persian Gulf, or countries neighboring or proximate to Iran. A qualifying initiative must be publicly identified as a deliberate reduction in US military presence near Iran. Routine troop movements, relocations, or regular variations in the deployment or stationing of US military personnel, which are not part of a qualifying initiative or commitment, will not count.
The United States will be considered to have agreed to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has agreed to withdraw troops from the region surrounding Iran.
- The withdrawal of US troops from the region surrounding Iran is included as part of a treaty or deal that is formally established between the United States and Iran, either through signing or other formal means.
Agreement refers to an explicit acceptance, authorization or consent to the specified action. Only announcements of definitive agreement will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any definitive agreement or commitment made before the resolution date will be considered, regardless of when or whether the specified action is begun.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of an announcement or formal agreement.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
- Trump agrees to Iranian demands by June 30: Polymarket 68%
- Polymarket prices 68% on Trump agreeing to Iranian demands by June 30, despite active military exchanges and stalled talks.
- Ongoing ballistic missile and drone attacks from Iran sit in tension with the 68% probability; the market is not treating the military escalation as a deal-breaker yet.
- Companion Polymarket contract CM-EVT-XYC4HDKBW3 prices 97% on the Iranian regime surviving US strikes, consistent with a negotiated rather than military resolution.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; resolution likely requires a publicly announced and verified agreement on Iranian nuclear or military demands before June 30.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-june-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-june-30.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-june-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-1G2HVDCQG7",
"slug": "what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-june-30",
"question": "Will Trump agree to Iranian demands by June 30?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"iran-us-relations",
"trump-administration",
"diplomacy-negotiations",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 460708,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}