Will the Alaska Senate primary final round winner be determined by 2026? [ resolved 2026-11-03 ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 22 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | 2026-11-03 | 100.0% | — | $3.4K | A | 0xe1e989…c2a5 | ||
| Dustin Darden | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | $599 | A | 0x495e37…39fa | ||
| Fred C. Grauberger | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | $625 | A | 0x0651e0…00dc | ||
| Richard Grayson | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | $643 | A | 0x17cb9d…c5db | ||
| Carol Hafner | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | $491 | A | 0xf06fd8…951e | ||
| Gerald L. Heikes | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | $502 | A | 0x0098dc…b459 | ||
| Sid Hill | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | $550 | A | 0x5f2f93…1219 | ||
| Scott Kohlhaas | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | $493 | A | 0xe444dc…bf9d | ||
| David Leslie | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | $2.8K | A | 0x6548fe…a4e1 | ||
| Richard Benedict Mayers | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | $545 | A | 0xa3776c…edaa | ||
| Heather McElwain | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | $540 | A | 0xa1e4b8…aace | ||
| Reece Roberts | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | $556 | A | 0x9a8274…87e4 | ||
| Shirley Saucerman | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | $508 | A | 0xf0490f…dd34 | ||
| Earl D. "Skip" Southworth | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | $547 | A | 0x14fad0…2522 | ||
| Dan J. Sullivan | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | $1.1K | A | 0xa7afb0…f78a | ||
| Dan S. Sullivan | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | $1.7K | A | 0x511225…de4f | ||
| Candidate A | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x083841…4a3d | ||
| Candidate B | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x36d88a…2984 | ||
| Candidate C | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb29b59…7edd | ||
| Candidate D | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x6fbfd3…d816 | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xea93d7…f664 | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x46dd68…0949 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of most votes in the final reported round of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate primary election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for August 18, 2026.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
consensus of credible reporting from rules text Division of Elections committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Mary Peltola win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 100% |
| NO | Will Dan S. Sullivan win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Dan J. Sullivan win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will David Leslie win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Shirley Saucerman win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Richard Benedict Mayers win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Earl D. "Skip" Southworth win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Heather McElwain win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Reece Roberts win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Scott Kohlhaas win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Dustin Darden win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Fred C. Grauberger win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Richard Grayson win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Carol Hafner win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Gerald L. Heikes win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will Sid Hill win the most votes in the Alaska Senate primary final round? | polymarket | 2026-09-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (16 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/vote-winner-in-alaska-senate-primary-final-round-20260630164517313/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/vote-winner-in-alaska-senate-primary-final-round-20260630164517313 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("vote-winner-in-alaska-senate-primary-final-round-20260630164517313") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-S6KFQ7RP47",
"slug": "vote-winner-in-alaska-senate-primary-final-round-20260630164517313",
"question": "Will the Alaska Senate primary final round winner be determined by 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"2026",
"alaska",
"primary",
"senate"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 22,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 15493,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 85,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Division of Elections",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Division of Elections",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}