Will a Republican win the Virginia Senate primary? [ resolved 2026-06-16 ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 18 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bert Mizusawa | 2026-06-16 | 100.0% | $189 | $14K | C | 0x114ba3…f10e | ||
| Bryce Reeves | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | $38K | C | 0x38cabf…81d3 | ||
| Al Mina | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $128 | $1.85M | C | 0x6a5589…6e22 | ||
| Jason Miyares | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | $16K | C | 0x29c454…b1d5 | ||
| Alex De Paula | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | $4.0K | C | 0x0d265d…3a4a | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd78edd…ae1f | ||
| Candidate K | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x194a3e…b398 | ||
| Candidate M | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7034ee…1b1c | ||
| Kim Farington | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $295 | $467K | C | 0x151f00…7bb3 | ||
| David Williams | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $55 | $19K | C | 0x01a349…b963 | ||
| Winsome Earle-Sears | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $3 | $12K | C | 0xc8ef1c…e989 | ||
| Chuck Smith | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $3 | $6.4K | C | 0xd815aa…1a5b | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x68731c…ccb9 | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe6495e…bbc4 | ||
| Candidate L | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbbfbd0…dae5 | ||
| Candidate N | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbf9ce3…9dcc | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x13447b…9398 | ||
| Candidate O | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfe4f51…e549 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.
If no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
the Virginia Republican party from rules text an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Alex De Paula be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| YES | Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 100% |
| NO | Will Winsome Earle-Sears be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jason Miyares be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Chuck Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (9 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/virginia-republican-senate-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/virginia-republican-senate-primary-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("virginia-republican-senate-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6WMV2V8V11",
"slug": "virginia-republican-senate-primary-winner",
"question": "Will a Republican win the Virginia Senate primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"2026",
"virginia",
"republican-primary",
"senate"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 18,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2423351,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 50,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "the Virginia Republican party",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}