US x Russia military clash by December 31? [ resolves 2025-12 – 2026-12 ]
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Russia military clash by December 31 | 2025-12-31 | 100.0% | — | $417K | C | 0x0d8201…d1f6 | ||
| US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 1.1% | $3.6K | $151K | C | 0xb1311a…9dd0 | ||
| US x Russia military clash by January 31, 2026 | 2026-06-30 | 0.1% | — | $106K | C | 0xb95d5b…15dc | ||
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 4.6% | — | $21K | C | 0x3373d3…cb06 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.
Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/us-x-russia-military-clash-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/us-x-russia-military-clash-by.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("us-x-russia-military-clash-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-207L4994P4",
"slug": "us-x-russia-military-clash-by",
"question": "US x Russia military clash by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"us-russia-relations",
"military-conflict",
"trump",
"2025-resolution",
"escalation-risk"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 694649,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 10,
"rcg_caps": [
"discretionary_trigger_no_source",
"adversarial_ground_truth"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}