Will the US trade deficit increase in 2026? [ resolves 2027-02-28 (270D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B | 2027-02-28 | 82.0% | — | $1.0K | A | 0xd3c655…e7ef | ||
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 1T and 1.1T | 2027-02-28 | 16.9% | — | $447 | A | 0x9bf22c…6a74 | ||
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 900B and 1T | 2027-02-28 | 9.0% | — | $984 | A | 0x26b690…529e | ||
| ≥ 1,100 | 2027-02-28 | 9.0% | — | $635 | A | 0x306b01…9d91 | ||
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 600B and 700B | 2027-02-28 | 6.9% | — | $495 | A | 0xac9d61…e9c7 | ||
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 700B and 800B | 2027-02-28 | 5.0% | — | $456 | A | 0x17ac7b…5cf4 | ||
| ≤ 500 | 2027-02-28 | 3.0% | — | $17K | A | 0xaaf3bc…2a7c | ||
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 500B and 600B | 2027-02-28 | 1.0% | — | $413 | A | 0x4984db…05b8 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | bea.gov | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/us-trade-deficit-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/us-trade-deficit-in-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("us-trade-deficit-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-9XX0JGFZM7",
"slug": "us-trade-deficit-in-2026",
"question": "Will the US trade deficit increase in 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-trade-deficit",
"economic-indicator",
"trump",
"2027-resolution",
"international-trade"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 21128,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 81,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "bea.gov",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}