Will United Airlines and American Airlines announce a merger or acquisition by end of 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
United x American Airlines merger/acquisition announced in 2026?
polymarket: [C] reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United x American Airlines merger/acquisition announced in 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 3.6% | — | $11K | C | 0xaf62da…d714 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that American Airlines will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with United Airlines, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mergers or acquisitions involving United Airlines, Inc. or its parent company, United Airlines Holdings, Inc., and American Airlines, Inc. or its parent company, American Airlines Group Inc., will qualify.
An announcement by American Airlines or United Airlines within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from United Airlines and American Airlines; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/united-x-american-airlines-merger-announced-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/united-x-american-airlines-merger-announced-in-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("united-x-american-airlines-merger-announced-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6YW7LXTNS4",
"slug": "united-x-american-airlines-merger-announced-in-2026",
"question": "Will United Airlines and American Airlines announce a merger or acquisition by end of 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"airline-industry",
"mergers-acquisitions",
"corporate-announcement",
"us-economy",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 10992,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 58,
"rcg_caps": [
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}