Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | $1.3K | $2.53M | C | 0x4167e2…1415 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Ukraine peace deal before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 10%
- Polymarket prices a Ukraine-Russia peace deal signed before 2027 at 10%.
- Zelensky's seven-to-ten day security guarantee push is a constructive signal, but Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's skepticism keeps the market at long-shot odds.
- The Ukraine territory cession contract on Polymarket sits at 6%, suggesting the market sees an even narrower path to a deal that involves concessions.
- The two contracts together imply the market prices almost no viable deal architecture before year-end, regardless of the accelerating mediation activity.
- Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 7%
- Polymarket puts only 7% on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, reflecting deeply entrenched market skepticism.
- The G20 Atlanta summit ending without consensus on Ukraine is consistent with the low probability pricing; no diplomatic breakthrough is being priced in.
- The companion Polymarket contract on Ukraine ceding territory to Russia by 2026 (CM-EVT-XP7FFT2MC9) sits at 5%, suggesting both territorial concessions and a formal peace deal are seen as near-equivalent long shots.
- Polymarket resolves via uma_oracle; a ceasefire or framework agreement short of a signed deal would likely not trigger resolution, making the bar high even under optimistic diplomatic scenarios.
- Ukraine peace deal with Russia before 2027 remains a long shot Polymarket 8%
- Polymarket prices 8% on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027.
- CGTN reports trilateral talks are being prepared, but intensifying fighting is the backdrop, and the market treats a 2026 deal as a remote outcome.
- A companion Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-66S3LD3901) prices 2% on a peace agreement specifically by 2026, showing the market sees the December 31 deadline as near-impossible.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; a signed, formal peace agreement is required, not a ceasefire or framework announcement.
- Ukraine peace deal before 2027 stays a long shot at 11 percent Polymarket 11%
- The Polymarket contract on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027 sits at 11%, a firm long-shot read.
- US efforts to revive peace talks and a reported energy-for-diplomacy deal are positive signals, but the market is not moving significantly toward a deal scenario.
- The companion Polymarket contract on Russia and Ukraine reaching a ceasefire in 2026 at 14% (CM-EVT-2089XJ01Y3) corroborates the long-shot stance, with a ceasefire seen as only marginally more likely than a full peace deal.
- Resolution via Polymarket's uma_oracle; settlement requires a signed peace agreement, not merely resumed talks or partial ceasefires.
- Ukraine peace deal before 2027 stays a long shot at 8 percent Polymarket 8%
- Polymarket prices only 8% probability on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, with trading volume up 4,388% day over day, signaling the claim is drawing sharp fresh attention.
- Despite Trump's public pressure on Zelenskyy and the collapsed energy ceasefire, the prediction market holds near the long-shot range, not pricing a near-term breakthrough.
- Companion Polymarket contracts reinforce the skepticism: 6% on Ukraine ceding territory, 6% on Ukraine limiting its armed forces, and 5% on Nord Stream restarting before 2027.
- Resolves via Polymarket UMA oracle; a signed framework agreement, even without full implementation, would likely trigger resolution.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424",
"slug": "ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027",
"question": "Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"ukraine-russia",
"peace-negotiations",
"2026",
"conflict-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2528171,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 30,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}