Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | $1.3K | $2.53M | C | 0x4167e2…1415 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Ukraine peace deal before 2027 remains a long shot Polymarket 11%
- Polymarket puts only 11% odds on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, with trading volume up 4,170% day-over-day, a 42.7x surge.
- The allies-see-war-extending-into-2027 assessment is consistent with the 11% pricing; the market is not treating the Putin-envoy meeting as a breakthrough signal.
- The extraordinary volume spike confirms the Polymarket contract is drawing significant fresh attention in direct response to the Putin-Trump call and envoy meeting news.
- Resolution via Polymarket UMA oracle; the contract requires a signed peace agreement, not a ceasefire announcement or framework accord.
- Ukraine peace deal before 2027 remains a long shot Polymarket 12%
- The Polymarket contract on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027 sits at 12%.
- US envoys flagged diplomatic movement, yet markets price only a 12% chance of a formal deal, showing strong skepticism toward the diplomatic signals.
- Russia's missile strike on Kyiv immediately after envoys left is consistent with the market's low probability on a near-term agreement.
- A separate Polymarket contract on a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement by 2026 (CM-EVT-66S3LD3901) prices at 8%, suggesting the market sees even a loose accord as unlikely this calendar year.
- Ukraine peace deal before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 14%
- Polymarket prices Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027 at just 14%, a long shot despite renewed US diplomacy.
- The Witkoff-Kushner Kyiv visit and diplomatic momentum described in news coverage is not moving the market's skeptical read, a clear fade of the peace-push narrative.
- A companion contract (CM-EVT-66S3LD3901) puts just 9% on Russia and Ukraine reaching a peace agreement by 2026, suggesting even less confidence in a near-term timeline.
- Zelenskyy's statement that war looks set to continue through winter (Story 28) is directionally consistent with the 14% pricing.
- Ukraine peace deal before 2027 stays a long shot at 15% Polymarket 15%
- Polymarket prices only 15% on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, resolving via UMA oracle.
- Kremlin describing talks as useful but producing no breakthrough is consistent with the market's heavy skepticism toward a near-term deal.
- Companion Polymarket contract on Ukraine ceding territory by 2026 (CM-EVT-XP7FFT2MC9) sits at 12%, suggesting markets see territorial concessions and a signed deal as roughly equally unlikely.
- Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 (CM-EVT-2089XJ01Y3) is priced at 13%, consistent with 15% on a full deal, implying markets see little gap between a ceasefire and a final settlement.
- Ukraine-Russia peace deal before 2027 stays a long shot Polymarket 13%
- Polymarket puts only 13% on Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, making it a long shot despite diplomatic signals.
- Putin's public statement about deal prospects and Ukraine's 'new dynamic' framing are not reflected in a meaningful odds shift; the market remains skeptical.
- A separate Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-66S3LD3901) prices only 6% on a peace agreement by 2026, showing the market sees any deal as very late-cycle at best.
- Polymarket contracts resolve via UMA oracle; a signed peace agreement would need to be publicly verifiable to trigger resolution.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DCQYWYX424",
"slug": "ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-before-2027",
"question": "Will Ukraine sign a peace deal with Russia before 2027?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"ukraine-russia",
"peace-negotiations",
"2026",
"conflict-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2528171,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 30,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}