Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31? [ resolves 2025-12 – 2026-06 ]
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31 | 2025-12-31 | 100.0% | — | $711K | C | 0xeec887…9d6b | ||
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31 | 2026-01-31 | 0.1% | — | $494K | C | 0x06bc56…f5ae | ||
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by February 28 | 2026-02-28 | 0.2% | — | $39K | C | 0xe3dfff…96de | ||
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31 | 2026-03-31 | 0.1% | — | $230K | C | 0x0050f8…1189 | ||
| Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30 | 2026-06-30 | 9.0% | $640 | $86K | C | 0xadb3dd…a84b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following:
1. A written or signed framework-related instrument issued or signed by Ukraine that affirms agreement with the U.S.-endorsed framework.
2. An official U.S.–Ukraine announcement — defined as an official government-issued declaration, such as a joint statement, communiqué, or coordinated official releases, explicitly stating that Ukraine has agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework. The announcement must be issued through authorized government channels, including official written releases or formally published transcripts by the White House, State Department, Office of the President of Ukraine, Cabinet of Ministers, or Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Verbal (including interviews or remarks during bilateral meetings) and social-media claims by either leader will not qualify unless later issued in an official written or published form by the respective government. The U.S. President or any US government official publicly stating that “an agreement has been reached,” without a corresponding formal release or communiqué, will not qualify; the same applies to statements by the Ukrainian President or Ukrainian officials.
3. A formally issued Ukrainian governmental action — including a presidential decree, Cabinet resolution, or National Security and Defense Council decision — explicitly stating that Ukraine agrees to the U.S.-endorsed framework.
The primary resolution source will be official government documents, statements, decrees, and credible reporting confirming that Ukraine officially agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework under the standards above.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ukraine-officially-agrees-to-a-us-backed-ceasefire-framework-in-2025/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ukraine-officially-agrees-to-a-us-backed-ceasefire-framework-in-2025.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ukraine-officially-agrees-to-a-us-backed-ceasefire-framework-in-2025") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VDGNRYZS97",
"slug": "ukraine-officially-agrees-to-a-us-backed-ceasefire-framework-in-2025",
"question": "Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"ukraine-ceasefire",
"us-diplomacy",
"trump",
"geopolitics",
"2025"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1558910,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}