Will the UAE and Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 4.3% | — | $111K | C | 0x8e9e11…4035 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Saudi Arabia formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official information from either respective government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
- UAE-Saudi diplomatic rupture in 2026 stays deep in tail risk 4% · $58K 24h
- 4% price prices the bilateral rupture as a low-probability but non-trivial geopolitical tail.
- $58K in 24h, 60% of all-time volume, signals fresh institutional attention, not retail noise.
- Spike may reflect recent Gulf tensions, energy policy friction, or regional diplomatic signaling.
- Contract resolves on formal severance of UAE-Saudi diplomatic relations within 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/uae-x-saudi-arabia-sever-diplomatic-relations-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/uae-x-saudi-arabia-sever-diplomatic-relations-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("uae-x-saudi-arabia-sever-diplomatic-relations-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DLDRWLFFN6",
"slug": "uae-x-saudi-arabia-sever-diplomatic-relations-in-2026",
"question": "Will the UAE and Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"middle-east",
"diplomatic-relations",
"gcc-states",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 110753,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}