Will Trump declare election interference a national emergency by December 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
Trump declares election interference national emergency?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump declares election interference national emergency | 2026-12-31 | 30.0% | — | $159K | A | 0x50378a…9bbc |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify.
Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference.
The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- Federal Register from rules text · editorial
- official White House publications from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Election interference emergency declaration stays a long shot Polymarket 14%
- Polymarket prices 14% on Trump declaring election interference a national emergency by December 31, 2026.
- Even after a primetime address and mass declassification, markets do not treat a formal emergency declaration as a likely next step.
- Internal government resistance to the declassification push, as reported, is consistent with a market that sees institutional friction slowing escalation.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; a formal national emergency declaration on election interference would be a distinct legal act beyond speeches or declassifications.
- Election interference national emergency declaration pricing stays low Polymarket 15%
- Polymarket prices only a 15% chance Trump declares election interference a national emergency by December 31, 2026.
- Despite a primetime address centered on election fraud claims, prediction markets price a formal national emergency declaration as unlikely.
- A separate Polymarket contract prices only 14% on a US court ruling the 2020 election fraudulent, suggesting markets see the political theater as bounded.
- Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; the question requires a formal emergency declaration, not merely public election fraud rhetoric.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/trump-declares-election-interference-national-emergency/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/trump-declares-election-interference-national-emergency |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("trump-declares-election-interference-national-emergency") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-SGDQ0483R0",
"slug": "trump-declares-election-interference-national-emergency",
"question": "Will Trump declare election interference a national emergency by December 31, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump",
"us-emergency-declaration",
"2026-election",
"executive-action"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 159425,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Register and official White House publications",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Register",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official White House publications",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}