Will Trump announce a US-Iran ceasefire by 2026-07-01? [ resolved 2026-07-01 ]
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 4 markets
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. publicly and officially announces, between Market Creation and the End Date (11:59 PM ET) that no ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is in effect. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that there is no longer any commitment in effect between the U.S. and Iran to refrain from military hostilities.
Statements that the US is no longer committed to such an agreement will qualify.
The expiration of a prior agreed ceasefire period without extension will not alone qualify.
Statements that merely reference violations, breaches, or non-compliance with the ceasefire will not alone qualify.
Announcements of a new agreement (e.g, a broader peace framework or ceasefire extension) that supersedes the initial ceasefire agreement while maintaining a mutual commitment to a halt in military hostilities will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account), and videos posted on his social media accounts, will qualify.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the ceasefire actually ends in practice or whether hostilities resume will not be considered.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-07-01 | 0% |
| NO | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? | polymarket | 2026-06-16 | 0% |
| NO | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? | polymarket | 2026-06-13 | 0% |
| NO | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 8? | polymarket | 2026-06-09 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (4 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/trump-announces-us-x-iran-ceasefire-over-byptptpt-20260607232555290/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/trump-announces-us-x-iran-ceasefire-over-byptptpt-20260607232555290 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("trump-announces-us-x-iran-ceasefire-over-byptptpt-20260607232555290") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-CQXHY1ZFM8",
"slug": "trump-announces-us-x-iran-ceasefire-over-byptptpt-20260607232555290",
"question": "Will Trump announce a US-Iran ceasefire by 2026-07-01?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"trump",
"us-iran-relations",
"middle-east",
"ceasefire-negotiations",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2448356,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government and the U.S. military",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}