Will the US blockade of Hormuz be lifted by the announced date? [ resolves 2026-04 – 2026-07 ]
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 17 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of… | 2026-04-23 | 0.1% | — | $1.98M | C | 0xd83978…d29e | ||
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of… | 2026-04-30 | 0.2% | — | $4.4K | C | 0xd9989a…e236 | ||
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of… | 2026-04-30 | 0.1% | — | $865K | C | 0x6d6485…c7f4 | ||
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of… | 2026-04-30 | 0.1% | — | $812K | C | 0x531afb…5438 | ||
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of… | 2026-04-30 | 0.1% | — | $940K | C | 0x3a9ef6…31ba | ||
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of… | 2026-04-30 | 0.1% | — | $199K | C | 0x4eb9a4…88f7 | ||
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of… | 2026-04-30 | 0.1% | — | $2.88M | C | 0xe31a6c…2465 | ||
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of… | 2026-04-30 | 0.1% | — | $174K | C | 0x584e1e…2afb | ||
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of… | 2026-05-08 | 0.1% | — | $1.97M | C | 0xc0b2ac…f719 | ||
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of… | 2026-05-15 | 0.1% | — | $3.30M | C | 0x36f665…a2ab | ||
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of… | 2026-05-22 | 0.1% | — | $2.39M | C | 0x22014d…1a51 | ||
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of… | 2026-05-28 | 0.4% | — | $745K | C | 0x0426ff…f792 | ||
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of… | 2026-05-31 | 0.1% | — | $9.36M | C | 0x8b369e…bcd6 | ||
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of… | 2026-06-07 | 8.0% | $69K | $642K | C | 0x65f5c4…931d | ||
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of… | 2026-06-15 | 26.0% | $41K | $373K | C | 0x3094a2…ddf6 | ||
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of… | 2026-06-30 | 56.0% | $52K | $1.97M | C | 0x4d0c48…a6d6 | ||
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of… | 2026-07-31 | 73.0% | $8.7K | $9.5K | C | 0x0549eb…c7f8 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).
Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g., posts from his personal Truth Social account) will qualify. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: this market will resolve solely based on whether a qualifying announcement is made within the specified timeframe. Whether the blockade is effectively enforced or whether maritime traffic resumes absent a qualifying announcement will not be considered.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918 recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted-by.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-F14T7JXKM0",
"slug": "trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted-by",
"question": "Will the US blockade of Hormuz be lifted by the announced date?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"trump",
"strait-of-hormuz",
"iran-us-relations",
"2026",
"military-sanctions"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 17,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 28609531,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 63,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}