Cryptocurrency hack total value, 2026 [ resolves 2027-01-01 (150D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $800,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 100.0% | — | $56K | C | 0x74b5ba…b6f2 | ||
| ≥ $1,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 100.0% | — | $12K | C | 0x299d3f…fe60 | ||
| ≥ $1,200,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 88.0% | — | $279 | C | 0x06530a…cc35 | ||
| ≥ $1,500,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 55.0% | — | $2.8K | C | 0xf8303a…1f77 | ||
| ≥ $2,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 77.0% | — | $4 | C | 0x41a7dc…60b4 | ||
| ≥ $2,500,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 24.0% | — | $218 | C | 0x866037…7393 | ||
| ≥ $3,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | — | $240 | C | 0x808401…c257 | ||
| ≥ $3,500,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | — | $396 | C | 0xe8ef19…e872 | ||
| ≥ $4,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $985 | C | 0x78601f…8df0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks
The total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026.
If the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used.
If the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://defillama.com/hacks sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Over $1B crypto hack value in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-07-16 | 100% |
| YES | Over $800M crypto hack value in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-05-01 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Total 2026 crypto hack value above $2B stays heavily favored Polymarket ladder
- Prediction market ladder prices 89% odds that total 2026 crypto hack value exceeds $2 billion, with only 27% above $2.5 billion.
- The $405 million Liquid Network exploit, net of the $270 million returned, adds materially to the 2026 running total and is consistent with the above-$2B consensus.
- The sharp drop from 89% at $2B to 27% at $2.5B and just 5% at $3B reveals the market does not expect a single catastrophic event to push totals far above the threshold.
- Resolution tracks cumulative reported crypto hack losses for calendar year 2026; partial recoveries like the Liquid white-hat return complicate gross versus net accounting.
- Total 2026 crypto hack value above $2 billion holds favored Polymarket ladder
- Prediction market ladder prices cumulative 2026 crypto hack value above $2 billion at 89%, with volume surging 68.9x day over day.
- The $320-405 million Liquid Network exploit adds to an already elevated 2026 hack tally; the volume surge signals this event is driving fresh contract activity.
- The ladder drops sharply at $2.5 billion (27%) and $3 billion (5%), implying markets see the current incident as pushing past the $2B threshold but not dramatically beyond.
- The Polymarket contract on a record crypto liquidation in 2026 (CM-EVT-V55KP87122) sits at only 10%, suggesting the Liquid exploit is seen as damaging but not the largest single event on record.
- Total 2026 crypto hack value seen between $2B and $2.5B Polymarket ladder
- Ladder prices total 2026 crypto hack value at 89% above $2.0B but only 27% above $2.5B, implying the market-implied range is $2.0-2.5B.
- The Liquid Network incident alone, at $320-405 million, is a material addition to the 2026 running total and is consistent with the above-$2.0B pricing.
- The sharp drop from 89% to 27% between the $2.0B and $2.5B strikes shows the market does not expect additional large hacks to push the total dramatically higher this year.
- Resolution depends on aggregated hack-value tallies across the full calendar year 2026; the Coldcard third-wave attacker (Story 34) is a separate incident adding further to the running total.
- Total 2026 crypto hack value favored above $1.5B Polymarket ladder
- Prediction market ladder prices 76% odds that total 2026 crypto hack value exceeds $1.5 billion, with 26% above $2.0 billion.
- The Coldcard breach, confirmed above $130 million and still ongoing at time of reporting, adds directly to the running 2026 total that the ladder is pricing.
- Trading volume on a related contract (CM-EVT-PQDW14N7X2) surged 2,865% day over day, a measured signal that the Coldcard hack is drawing significant fresh attention to crypto-security markets.
- At 96% above $1.2 billion, the ladder already treats the lower threshold as near-certain; the question is whether the Coldcard losses plus prior hacks push the total through $2.0 billion by year-end.
- Total 2026 crypto hack value odds favor $1.5B but short of $2B Polymarket ladder
- Kalshi ladder prices 96% above $1.2B and 81% above $1.5B in total 2026 crypto hack value, but drops to only 26% above $2.0B.
- The Coldcard exploit, over $130M stolen with at least 15 attackers still active, is a major single-event contributor toward the $1.5B threshold, consistent with the 81% reading.
- The distribution's sharp drop from 81% at $1.5B to 26% at $2.0B shows the market views the Coldcard hack as material but unlikely alone to push the annual tally past $2.0B.
- The Bitcoin price ladder (CM-EVT-PFHRR5PCZ2) centers around $64,500-$65,000 for August 7, meaning the stolen BTC's dollar value is priced against a market not expecting a significant crash from the hack.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/total-crypto-hack-value-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/total-crypto-hack-value-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("total-crypto-hack-value-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-88PZ3D88F1",
"slug": "total-crypto-hack-value-in-2026",
"question": "Cryptocurrency hack total value, 2026",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"security-breaches",
"2026-events",
"quantitative-threshold",
"hacks-exploits",
"digital-assets"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 72342,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 44,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "defillama.com",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "defillama.com",
"url": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "DefiLlama",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}