Over $800M crypto hack value in 2026 [ resolves 2026-05 – 2027-01 ]
Over $1.5B crypto hack value in 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 9 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ $800,000,000 | 2026-05-01 | 99.8% | — | $56K | C | 0x74b5ba…b6f2 | ||
| ≥ $1,000,000,000 | 2026-07-16 | 99.9% | — | $12K | C | 0x299d3f…fe60 | ||
| ≥ $1,200,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 87.0% | — | $279 | C | 0x06530a…cc35 | ||
| ≥ $1,500,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 57.0% | — | $2.8K | C | 0xf8303a…1f77 | ||
| ≥ $2,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 26.0% | — | $4 | C | 0x41a7dc…60b4 | ||
| ≥ $2,500,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 22.0% | — | $218 | C | 0x866037…7393 | ||
| ≥ $3,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 9.0% | — | $240 | C | 0x808401…c257 | ||
| ≥ $3,500,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 12.0% | — | $396 | C | 0xe8ef19…e872 | ||
| ≥ $4,000,000,000 | 2027-01-01 | 3.0% | — | $985 | C | 0x78601f…8df0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks
The total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026.
If the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used.
If the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://defillama.com/hacks sources (2) · single authority
- defillama.com source of record venue-listed
- DefiLlama from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Markets firmly price 2026 crypto hack losses above $1.5B Polymarket ladder
- Ladder pricing implies the 2026 crypto hack total sits in the $1.5-2.0 billion range: 87% above $1.2B, 57% above $1.5B, but only 26% above $2.0B.
- The Allbridge Core exploit adds a confirmed incremental amount to the running tally; the market's $1.5-2.0B central range absorbs small exploits without shifting.
- The sharp drop from 57% to 26% between the $1.5B and $2.0B strikes signals the market sees a large single-event hack as the key tail risk to watch.
- Resolution mechanics depend on the named aggregator tracking total verified exploit value across all chains; multi-protocol exploits may be counted individually.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/total-crypto-hack-value-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/total-crypto-hack-value-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("total-crypto-hack-value-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-88PZ3D88F1",
"slug": "total-crypto-hack-value-in-2026",
"question": "Over $800M crypto hack value in 2026",
"category": "crypto",
"tags": [
"crypto",
"security-breaches",
"2026-events",
"quantitative-threshold",
"hacks-exploits",
"digital-assets"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 9,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 72342,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 44,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "defillama.com",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "defillama.com",
"url": "https://defillama.com/hacks",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "DefiLlama",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}