Will a new mayor be elected in Toronto by the 2026 election? [ resolved 2026-10-27 ]
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 36 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Someone else | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x32c851…3a13 | ||
| Person A | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4ffdd1…9ab8 | ||
| Person A | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7f5514…b971 | ||
| Person B | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9d00ca…28b7 | ||
| Person C | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x99ff48…d580 | ||
| Person D | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbab3ef…8c9c | ||
| Person E | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7bf886…d263 | ||
| Person F | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9a9bb3…cabb | ||
| Person G | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x338255…8dc1 | ||
| Person H | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8c8f2b…8a4e | ||
| Person I | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x43dc86…991a | ||
| Person J | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x21aedd…67e6 | ||
| Person K | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x588b20…8f6a | ||
| Person L | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8f79ab…de80 | ||
| Person M | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5758fa…c3d1 | ||
| Person N | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfc4e3c…e1b6 | ||
| Person O | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5286b8…6bdc | ||
| Person P | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd5a8c8…01aa | ||
| Person Q | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4683b8…62d1 | ||
| Person R | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc98563…173f | ||
| Person S | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x57b0bd…4832 | ||
| Person T | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x07efa5…368a | ||
| Person U | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe9ac13…4880 | ||
| Person V | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3cb3de…4000 | ||
| Person W | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd11d69…6808 | ||
| Person X | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x42ecaa…4661 | ||
| Person Y | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x62f28d…7c63 | ||
| Person Z | 2026-10-26 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfd0dd5…ca78 | ||
| Olivia Chow | 2026-10-27 | 100.0% | — | $28K | C | 0x129504…0459 | ||
| Brad Bradford | 2026-10-27 | 0.0% | $20 | $32K | C | 0xbdfde2…7e92 | ||
| Ana Bailão | 2026-10-27 | 0.0% | — | $11K | C | 0xb7b4ff…ff40 | ||
| Michael Ford | 2026-10-27 | 0.0% | — | $11K | C | 0x91f8b5…991c | ||
| Anthony Furey | 2026-10-27 | 0.0% | — | $8.3K | C | 0x6bc524…114b | ||
| Marco Mendicino | 2026-10-27 | 0.0% | — | $15K | C | 0x9d991d…3dc5 | ||
| John Tory | 2026-10-27 | 0.0% | — | $8.3K | C | 0x07aecf…2653 | ||
| Kevin Clarke | 2026-10-27 | 0.0% | — | $8.6K | C | 0xa8f305…e943 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
consensus of credible reporting from rules text official information from Toronto from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | polymarket | 2026-10-27 | 100% |
| NO | Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | polymarket | 2026-10-27 | 0% |
| NO | Will Ana Bailão win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | polymarket | 2026-10-27 | 0% |
| NO | Will Michael Ford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | polymarket | 2026-10-27 | 0% |
| NO | Will Anthony Furey win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | polymarket | 2026-10-27 | 0% |
| NO | Will Marco Mendicino win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | polymarket | 2026-10-27 | 0% |
| NO | Will John Tory win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | polymarket | 2026-10-27 | 0% |
| NO | Will Kevin Clarke win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? | polymarket | 2026-10-27 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (8 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/toronto-mayoral-election-winner-545/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/toronto-mayoral-election-winner-545 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("toronto-mayoral-election-winner-545") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MDRDNHNYP1",
"slug": "toronto-mayoral-election-winner-545",
"question": "Will a new mayor be elected in Toronto by the 2026 election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"canada",
"toronto",
"municipal-election",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 36,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 122871,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 54,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "official information from Toronto",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}