Will tech sector layoffs increase in 2026? [ resolves 2027-02-28 (270D) ]

Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026?

polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

polymarket 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Tech Layoffs Up or Down in 2026	2027-02-28	86.0%		—	$25K		A	`0x74f190…98bd`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	Federal Reserve	link	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 1 market · share this text

This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs). This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026. If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total. Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered. This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL). Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

platform source field polymarket.description → https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL

recent wire items

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No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/tech-layoffs-up-or-down-in-2026/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/tech-layoffs-up-or-down-in-2026.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("tech-layoffs-up-or-down-in-2026")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-K0Q5Q21QD3",
  "slug": "tech-layoffs-up-or-down-in-2026",
  "question": "Will tech sector layoffs increase in 2026?",
  "category": "technology",
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "tech-layoffs",
    "labor-market",
    "employment",
    "ai-economy",
    "2027-resolution"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 25335,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 80,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL",
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →