Will the Sweden Democrats win the most seats in the Swedish parliamentary election? [ resolves 2026-09-13 (52D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 36 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) | 2026-09-13 | 97.0% | $3.8K | $83K | A | 0xe5acfe…6818 | ||
| The Sweden Democrats (SD) | 2026-09-13 | 1.6% | $2.3K | $535K | A | 0xa39535…4639 | ||
| The Moderate Party (M) | 2026-09-13 | 0.2% | $2.5K | $402K | A | 0x69ecf8…4673 | ||
| The Centre Party (C) | 2026-09-13 | 0.1% | $2.4K | $28K | A | 0x78fc3c…a0c8 | ||
| The Left Party (V) | 2026-09-13 | 0.1% | $2.4K | $26K | A | 0x3c7232…4ec9 | ||
| The Christian Democrats (KD) | 2026-09-13 | 0.1% | $2.5K | $23K | A | 0xa50faf…5491 | ||
| The Green Party (MP) | 2026-09-13 | 0.1% | $4.1K | $120K | A | 0x59df45…d49a | ||
| The Liberals (L) | 2026-09-13 | 0.1% | $2.4K | $23K | A | 0x50e63d…47b3 | ||
| The Citizens' Coalition (MED) | 2026-09-13 | 0.1% | $2.2K | $22K | A | 0x8b2182…a94d | ||
| Party A | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x3c1d31…e91e | ||
| Party B | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9bd6f5…b30f | ||
| Party C | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5d1648…2d46 | ||
| Party D | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xfe9b7e…5b70 | ||
| Party E | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x899a40…ad15 | ||
| Party F | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd9bce5…b680 | ||
| Party G | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x6ea236…fc10 | ||
| Party H | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x38e09a…3a21 | ||
| Party I | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8d6c9c…bfa5 | ||
| Party J | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x27a80f…ba8f | ||
| Party K | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa77884…0e9c | ||
| Party L | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x18c54d…59f3 | ||
| Party M | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4ac59f…da4f | ||
| Party N | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x83947d…618b | ||
| Party O | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xfd55b5…1ee5 | ||
| Party P | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x92d70d…e7b5 | ||
| Party Q | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x451155…c091 | ||
| Party R | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa2fb72…e6c2 | ||
| Party S | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb01951…3818 | ||
| Party T | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x3302b4…d458 | ||
| Party U | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc1d7f7…2c55 | ||
| Party V | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf70d62…ab12 | ||
| Party W | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa39caf…3526 | ||
| Party X | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xacb6b3…f7a1 | ||
| Party Y | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x09ec9b…3160 | ||
| Party Z | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x549bb7…baae | ||
| Other | 2026-09-13 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9cd3d3…1d2d |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.
If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- val.se venue-listed
- Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/sweden-parliamentary-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/sweden-parliamentary-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("sweden-parliamentary-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-SLC4N114W0",
"slug": "sweden-parliamentary-election-winner",
"question": "Will the Sweden Democrats win the most seats in the Swedish parliamentary election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"sweden",
"parliamentary",
"2026",
"seat-plurality"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 36,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1260355,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.val.se/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "val.se",
"url": "https://www.val.se/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}