Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of June? [ resolves 2026-06-30 (27D) ]
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
polymarket: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June | 2026-06-30 | 20.0% | $275K | $12.98M | B | 0x348cd9…2187 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | portwatch.imf.org | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 recent wire items
- Hormuz traffic normal by end of June: Polymarket 42%
- Polymarket prices 42% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by end of June, versus 86% by December 31.
- Trump's one-week deal timeline would need to materialize rapidly to shift the near-term 42% toward the longer-dated 86%; the spread signals serious timeline doubt.
- Fraying ceasefire and stalled Iran talks reported elsewhere make the June 30 normalization window tight; the 44-point gap between June and December contracts reflects that uncertainty.
- Resolves via portwatch.imf.org shipping traffic data; normalization likely requires sustained passage rates returning to pre-conflict baselines.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-YPW93GCTK6",
"slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june",
"question": "Will traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal by the end of June?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"economy",
"shipping-logistics",
"middle-east",
"energy-markets",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 12975485,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 77,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "portwatch.imf.org",
"resolution_source_url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}