Will the S&P 500 (SPX) reach a specific level by the end of December? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 12 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $4,500 | 2026-12-31 | 9.0% | — | $18K | B | 0xdda8b5…b9eb | ||
| ≤ $5,200 | 2026-12-31 | 16.0% | $199 | $16K | B | 0xbddb2c…fedb | ||
| ≤ $5,800 | 2026-12-31 | 25.0% | $8 | $19K | B | 0x6331d6…cee3 | ||
| ≤ $6,200 | 2026-12-31 | 33.1% | $153 | $21K | B | 0x63e5bd…80fe | ||
| ≤ $6,400 | 2026-12-31 | 99.9% | — | $8.6K | B | 0xfce2cb…7d26 | ||
| ≤ $6,600 | 2026-12-31 | 99.9% | — | — | B | 0x8b4e3d…4fc7 | ||
| ≥ $7,400 | 2026-12-31 | 99.9% | — | $8.9K | B | 0x7dffc7…8268 | ||
| ≥ $7,600 | 2026-12-31 | 99.9% | — | $33K | B | 0x91d86e…58c2 | ||
| ≥ $7,800 | 2026-12-31 | 75.0% | $434 | $3.2K | B | 0x1fc6d5…43c3 | ||
| ≥ $8,200 | 2026-12-31 | 34.0% | — | $4.4K | B | 0xc3c873…d5a2 | ||
| ≥ $8,600 | 2026-12-31 | 18.0% | — | $11K | B | 0x2db4ee…1014 | ||
| ≥ $9,300 | 2026-12-31 | 5.9% | — | $3.2K | B | 0x68a1e8…09ec |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.
Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.
All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/ recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/spx-hit-dec-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/spx-hit-dec-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("spx-hit-dec-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-B3PGCW67Y8",
"slug": "spx-hit-dec-2026",
"question": "Will the S&P 500 (SPX) reach a specific level by the end of December?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"spx",
"sp-500",
"equity-index",
"price-level",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 12,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 147630,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 77,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}