Will SpaceX have an initial public offering with a closing share price announced by June 13, 2026? [ resolved 2026-06-13 ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100 | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $52K | $60K | A | 0x283768…fb95 | ||
| ≤ $100 | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $25K | $34K | A | 0x55bf83…1b8f | ||
| $150 | 2026-06-13 | 100.0% | $38K | $43K | A | 0x7c435e…2334 | ||
| $200 | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $57K | $64K | A | 0xba1d0b…b3c3 | ||
| ≥ $250 | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $27K | $32K | A | 0x34eb75…d558 | ||
| Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027 | 2026-06-13 | 0.0% | $179 | $3.8K | A | 0x6af271…be87 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's closing share price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
The closing share price will be stated in the currency in which SpaceX's shares are denominated on the primary exchange.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (1) · stated precedence rule
- another reliable source from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200? | polymarket | 2026-06-12 | 100% |
| NO | Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at least $250? | polymarket | 2026-06-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? | polymarket | 2026-06-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? | polymarket | 2026-06-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less than $100? | polymarket | 2026-06-12 | 0% |
| NO | Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? | polymarket | 2026-06-12 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (6 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/spacex-ipo-closing-share-price-20260607171825124/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/spacex-ipo-closing-share-price-20260607171825124 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("spacex-ipo-closing-share-price-20260607171825124") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BN0799C8H9",
"slug": "spacex-ipo-closing-share-price-20260607171825124",
"question": "Will SpaceX have an initial public offering with a closing share price announced by June 13, 2026?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"spacex-ipo",
"financials",
"tech-equity",
"2026-event",
"public-markets",
"space-industry"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 237705,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 80,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "another reliable source",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}