Will Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha be arrested in 2026? (multi-deadline series) [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sinaloa Governor Ruben Rocha Moya is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from the arresting government and law enforcement from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by June 30? | polymarket | 2026-07-03 | 0% |
| NO | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31? | polymarket | 2026-06-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/sinaloa-gov-ruben-rocha-arrested-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/sinaloa-gov-ruben-rocha-arrested-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("sinaloa-gov-ruben-rocha-arrested-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5XFYY6MBJ5",
"slug": "sinaloa-gov-ruben-rocha-arrested-by",
"question": "Will Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha be arrested in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"mexico",
"law-enforcement",
"sinaloa",
"2026",
"political-arrest"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 26183,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 40,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the arresting government and law enforcement",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}