Who will win the South Carolina Senate election? [ resolves 2026-11 – 2027-01 ]
Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Carolina?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | United States Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of South Carolina for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "United States Congress" sources (1) · single authority
United States Congress committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Carolina? | kalshi | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Republican holds slight edge in South Carolina Senate race Kalshi 72%
- Kalshi prices a Republican win in the South Carolina Senate race at 72%, making it a moderately favored but not locked-in outcome.
- Trump's in-state rally visit aligns with the Republican-lean pricing, though 28% odds still leave meaningful uncertainty.
- A companion Kalshi contract on New Hampshire holding a same-party governor-senator combo sits at 86%, illustrating how different state-level races carry varying certainty.
- Kalshi resolves via United States Congress certification; final margin, not Trump rally count, determines the outcome.
- Republicans defend South Carolina Senate seat at heavy odds 81% · $50K 24h
- Kalshi prices Republican South Carolina Senate victory at 81%, solid but not locked favorite.
- $50K in 24h is 47% of a $105K all-time pool, marking the contract's most active trading session.
- Fresh attention may reflect candidate filing clarity, early polling, or national Democratic resource allocation news.
- Resolves on 2026 South Carolina Senate election night; price leaves meaningful uncertainty for the opposition.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/senatesc-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/senatesc-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("senatesc-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-YB0M8XXMW8",
"slug": "senatesc-26",
"question": "Who will win the South Carolina Senate election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate",
"south-carolina",
"2026-election",
"republican-vs-democrat",
"electoral-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 287195,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "United States Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}