Ohio Senate winner? [ resolves 2027-01-04 (153D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | United States Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Ohio for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "United States Congress" sources (1) · single authority
United States Congress committed source
recent wire items
- Ohio Senate race sits at 47% as fresh volume tests the line 47% · $119K 24h
- 47% price puts the Republican Senate bid just under even money, making Ohio one of the tightest Senate calls on the board.
- $119K in 24h volume equals exactly 25% of all-time Kalshi volume, hitting the landmark quarter-of-lifetime threshold in a single day.
- Ohio is a perennial battleground; mid-August volume surge likely reflects new polling, candidate positioning, or national environment shifts.
- Contract resolves on the 2026 Ohio general election Senate result.
- Ohio Senate race sits at a coin-flip 49% 49% · $133K 24h
- Kalshi prices Democratic Senate win in Ohio at 49%, dead even with the field.
- 24h volume of $133K is 49% of all-time handle, signaling a mass reassessment of the race.
- Knife-edge pricing suggests traders see no clear structural edge for either party in the state.
- Contract resolves on Ohio general election outcome; any polling shift could break the deadlock.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/senateohs-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/senateohs-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("senateohs-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MJFDC6MPF0",
"slug": "senateohs-26",
"question": "Ohio Senate winner?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate",
"ohio-politics",
"2026-election",
"republican-democrat",
"electoral-prediction"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 322094,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "United States Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}