New Hampshire Senate winner? [ resolves 2027-01-04 (153D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | United States Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of New Hampshire for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "United States Congress" sources (1) · single authority
United States Congress committed source
recent wire items
- Republicans face long odds in New Hampshire Senate race at 19% 19% · $18K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Republican Senate win in New Hampshire at 19%, the mirror of the 82% Democratic contract.
- 25% of all-time volume, $18.2K, hit in 24h, directly correlated with the larger Democratic-side spike.
- Simultaneous volume on both sides of the NH Senate market points to two-sided positioning, not one-directional conviction.
- The 19% Republican price represents the hedge and tail-risk entry point as the midterm cycle heats up.
- Democrats heavily favored in New Hampshire Senate race 82% · $95K 24h
- Kalshi prices Democratic victory at 82%, a strong lean that leaves meaningful tail risk for a Republican upset.
- $94.7K in 24h represents 45% of all-time volume, signaling a sharp spike in market attention.
- Fresh conviction at this level likely tracks new polling, candidate news, or early-vote data from New Hampshire.
- Race resolves on 2026 midterm election night; pricing above 80% invites hedging interest on the 18% Republican side.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/senatenh-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/senatenh-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("senatenh-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-NF2DF1TXH9",
"slug": "senatenh-26",
"question": "New Hampshire Senate winner?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate-election",
"new-hampshire-politics",
"2026-midterm",
"electoral-prediction",
"party-control"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 67887,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "United States Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}