Will the Kansas Senate seat be won by the Republican candidate in the next election? [ resolves 2026-11 – 2027-01 ]
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Kansas?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | United States Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Kansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "United States Congress" sources (1) · single authority
United States Congress committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Republicans win the Senate race in Kansas? | kalshi | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Kansas Senate race stays near a coin flip Kalshi 49%
- The Kalshi contract on the Republican candidate winning the Kansas Senate seat sits at 49%, effectively a coin flip.
- Justice Department subpoenas in multiple states and Trump's final-weekend rally schedule in Kansas signal both parties view this race as genuinely competitive.
- A Republican Kansas loss would significantly complicate GOP Senate retention; the 49% pricing reflects that binary uncertainty days before polls close.
- Resolves via the United States Congress; the Alaska Senate contract (CM-EVT-KQWMXB6NX7) at 31% for a new senator shows another competitive seat, adding to Senate math complexity.
- Kansas Senate seat stays heavily favored for Republicans Kalshi 81%
- Kalshi puts 81% on the Republican candidate winning the Kansas Senate seat, resolves via the United States Congress.
- The Democratic Senate-majority narrative is not reflected in Kansas; the market firmly prices it as a Republican hold.
- The New Mexico Senate seat Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-ZD0C3KWW30) sits at 98% for Republicans, anchoring the upper bound of safe GOP territory.
- The Democratic leader internal dynamics Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-W0LJLH97L8) at 20% suggests limited internal pressure on Senate Democratic leadership despite midterm uncertainty.
- Georgia Senate contest anchors Republican edge at 78 percent Kalshi 78%
- The Kalshi prediction market prices Republicans at 78% to win the Kansas Senate seat, reflecting a solid but not overwhelming GOP advantage.
- The Georgia result, where Trump's-backed candidate Collins advances to face Ossoff, is a separate race from Kansas, but both are closely watched Senate battlegrounds in the 2026 cycle.
- The 78% pricing implies meaningful Democratic competitiveness in Kansas, leaving roughly one-in-five odds for the minority party.
- Kalshi resolves this via United States Congress certification of the election result; the official winner declaration is the settlement trigger.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/senateks-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/senateks-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("senateks-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-S6Y29BSL46",
"slug": "senateks-26",
"question": "Will the Kansas Senate seat be won by the Republican candidate in the next election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate-2026",
"kansas-politics",
"election-outcome",
"partisan-race",
"incumbent-challenge"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 92189,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "United States Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}