Idaho Senate winner? [ resolves 2026-11 – 2027-01 ]
Will Todd Achilless win the Senate race in Idaho?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | United States Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Idaho for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "United States Congress" sources (1) · single authority
United States Congress committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Republicans win the Senate race in Idaho? | kalshi | 2026-11-04 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Idaho Senate stays deep red as odds hold near certainty 96% · $134K 24h
- 96% price on Kalshi reflects near-certain Republican retention of the Idaho seat.
- $133,911 in 24h trading is 35% of all-time volume, notable fresh engagement on a foregone conclusion.
- Late-cycle volume on a locked-in race may reflect arbitrage activity or hedging against a broader Senate seat basket.
- Resolves on 2026 Idaho Senate election result.
- Idaho Senate GOP seat holds at a wide favorite 87% · $131K 24h
- Kalshi prices Republican win at 87%, implying near-certain outcome with thin upset risk.
- $131K traded in 24h, 45% of all-time volume, the sharpest single-day concentration on record.
- Heavy one-day flow into a decided race suggests positioning ahead of early-vote or polling updates.
- Resolves on 2026 midterm election night; little ambiguity priced in at current odds.
- Republican Idaho Senate hold priced near certainty 94% · $21K 24h
- 94% price leaves almost no market probability of a Democratic pickup in Idaho's Senate race.
- 39% of all-time volume in 24 hours is notable for a race with almost no perceived competitiveness.
- Volume at this price level likely reflects hedging or arbitrage activity rather than directional conviction.
- Resolves on the certified outcome of the Idaho Senate general election.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/senateid-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/senateid-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("senateid-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TRRJX6C1D5",
"slug": "senateid-26",
"question": "Idaho Senate winner?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate-2027",
"idaho-politics",
"republican-candidate",
"electoral-outcome",
"state-election"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 3,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 21751,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "United States Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}