Iowa Senate winner? [ resolves 2027-01-04 (153D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | United States Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Iowa for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "United States Congress" sources (1) · single authority
United States Congress committed source
recent wire items
- Democrats trail in Iowa Senate but odds stay close to 50% 45% · $119K 24h
- 45% price puts Democrats just below even money, signaling a genuine toss-up with a slight Republican lean.
- 24h volume of $119K is 35% of all-time contract volume, marking one of the heaviest single-day sessions on Kalshi.
- Mid-August attention spike suggests a catalyst, candidate news, polling, or fundraising disclosure, is drawing fresh capital.
- Contract resolves on Iowa 2026 general election result.
- Republicans lead the Iowa Senate race at 57% 57% · $160K 24h
- 57% implies GOP is modest favorite, well short of lock status.
- $160K traded in 24h, 33% of all-time volume floods in at once.
- Late-summer Senate map attention; Iowa suddenly a live battleground watch.
- Resolves on November 2026 general election result.
- Iowa Senate GOP odds hold at 60% through a volume surge 60% · $153K 24h
- Kalshi prices Republicans at 60%, a clear but not commanding lead in the Iowa Senate race.
- $153K traded in 24h, nearly half (48%) of all-time volume, signaling a sharp burst of fresh attention.
- Surge likely tied to a candidate announcement, polling drop, or fundraising news drawing traders to reprice.
- Contract resolves on Iowa Senate election outcome; 60% implies Democrats remain live at 40%.
- Democratic Iowa Senate odds sit at 42% as fresh bets pile in 42% · $108K 24h
- Kalshi prices Democrats at 42%, trailing but within striking distance, well above a long-shot read.
- $108K in 24h represents 60% of all-time volume, the highest lifetime-share ratio across today's spikes.
- Mirror of Spike 0: simultaneous heavy trading on both sides points to contested new information entering the market.
- Implied Republican lead of roughly 18 percentage points is the current consensus gap.
- Betting picks back up on a Republican Senate hold in Iowa 63% · $64K 24h
- 63% pricing reflects solid but not assured Republican advantage in what markets treat as a lean-red seat.
- $63.7K in 24h equals 37% of all-time volume, a substantial single-session re-engagement.
- Renewed activity may track candidate developments, polling releases, or national environment reassessment.
- Resolution tied to November 2026 midterms; current price leaves meaningful room for Democratic upset.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/senateia-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/senateia-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("senateia-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-R8V0583H75",
"slug": "senateia-26",
"question": "Iowa Senate winner?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate",
"iowa-politics",
"2026-midterms",
"republican-democrat",
"electoral-prediction"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 511063,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "United States Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}