Will a new senator be elected to represent Alaska in the U.S. Senate? [ resolves 2027-01-04 (153D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | United States Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Alaska for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "United States Congress" sources (1) · single authority
United States Congress committed source
recent wire items
- New Alaska senator odds stay near the floor despite Democratic leads Kalshi 3%
- Kalshi puts only 3% on a new senator being elected to represent Alaska, despite news reporting Democrats lead there.
- The contract framing and low price may reflect question-specific resolution criteria rather than a denial of the Democratic lead in the race itself.
- The broader Democratic wave is priced at 99% on the blue tsunami contract, making the Alaska contract's 3% a potential resolution-mechanics anomaly worth monitoring.
- Resolves via United States Congress certification; the gap between the 99% wave price and 3% Alaska-seat price warrants close attention to the question's exact resolution criteria.
- Republicans trail Alaska Senate race at 6% 6% · $340K 24h
- Market prices Republican Alaska Senate win at just 6%, deep underdog territory.
- $340K in 24h is 43% of all-time volume; proportionally outsized given the low odds.
- Election Day results today are the immediate catalyst; contract resolves on certified winner.
- Paired with Spike 0, opposing side of the same Kalshi race contract.
- Democrats hold Alaska Senate at 94% 94% · $2.1M 24h
- Market prices Democrats as near-certain Alaska Senate winners at 94%.
- $2.1M in 24h volume is 26% of all-time, dominant single-day spike on Election Day.
- Election Day 2026 is today; live returns will resolve the contract within hours.
- Kalshi contract resolves on certified winner; 94% leaves little room for reversal.
- Republican Alaska Senate odds stay under 10% at 50% volume mark 5% · $304K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Republican Alaska Senate win at just 5%, reflecting near-total market rejection of the outcome.
- 50% of all-time volume on this contract, $303K, cleared in 24 hours, a significant Election Day flush.
- Counterpart 'Democrats win' contract (Spike 0) is at 95%, confirming the two contracts are pricing consistently.
- Resolves on certified Alaska result; the 5% tail represents tail risk on late or contested counts.
- Democrats near-certain in Alaska Senate on heavy volume 95% · $3M 24h
- Kalshi prices Democratic win at 95%, implying a near-certain outcome with minimal residual doubt.
- 38% of all-time contract volume, $3M, landed in 24 hours, the largest single-day commitment on record.
- Election Day 2026: live results arriving now are driving last-minute conviction into the 'yes' side.
- Resolves on certified Alaska Senate result; any late count shift is the residual 5% tail.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/senateak-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/senateak-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("senateak-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KQWMXB6NX7",
"slug": "senateak-26",
"question": "Will a new senator be elected to represent Alaska in the U.S. Senate?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate-2026",
"alaska-politics",
"republican-democrat",
"election-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 239432,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "United States Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}