Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire agreement by June 2026? [ resolves 2026-06 – 2026-12 ]
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, | 2026-06-01 | 0.1% | — | $817K | C | 0x8fc187…215e | ||
| June 30, | 2026-07-01 | 0.5% | — | $1.72M | C | 0x60c6fe…d9ad | ||
| August 31, | 2026-08-31 | 9.0% | $13K | $276K | C | 0xfb8ac1…3727 | ||
| October 31, | 2026-10-31 | 24.0% | $7.9K | $747K | C | 0x6c3f10…a32f | ||
| December 31, | 2026-12-31 | 36.0% | $6.0K | $2.04M | C | 0x5c19f2…8fdd |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by year-end wavers near even split Polymarket 47%
- Polymarket prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026 at 47%, close to even odds.
- G7 unity on Russia pressure and Trump's sanctions signal are consistent with the market's near-50% pricing; neither a clear breakthrough nor collapse is priced.
- The Putin-Zelensky meeting by June 30 contract on Polymarket sits at just 1%, showing near-zero near-term diplomatic progress is expected.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; a signed ceasefire agreement, not merely talks or a pause in fighting, is the likely settlement standard.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LVRHCH4653",
"slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-agreement-by",
"question": "Will Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire agreement by June 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"russia-ukraine",
"ceasefire-negotiations",
"2026-resolution",
"diplomatic-agreement",
"conflict-resolution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5605496,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 26,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}