Will a party other than United Russia finish in second place in the Russian parliamentary election? [ resolves 2026-09-20 (59D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 34 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) | 2026-09-20 | 75.0% | $74 | $24K | C | 0x3ce5bc…01d4 | ||
| New People (NL) | 2026-09-20 | 17.0% | — | $17K | C | 0x65d9ff…20f0 | ||
| The Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) | 2026-09-20 | 6.6% | — | $36K | C | 0x112fc8…b569 | ||
| United Russia (ER) | 2026-09-20 | 1.9% | — | $9.5K | C | 0xd78b69…af72 | ||
| A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) | 2026-09-20 | 0.7% | — | $6.7K | C | 0xc903de…bf1a | ||
| Rodina | 2026-09-20 | 0.2% | — | $7.4K | C | 0x05f4f7…7887 | ||
| Civic Platform (GP) | 2026-09-20 | 0.2% | — | $6.3K | C | 0x1820d3…f87d | ||
| Other | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc7cf06…50ac | ||
| Party A | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x09b658…14ac | ||
| Party B | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x018bb6…6cca | ||
| Party C | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd932e0…1636 | ||
| Party D | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x435a9f…4d74 | ||
| Party E | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xedf186…0760 | ||
| Party F | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9a21ea…5411 | ||
| Party G | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7e212d…c569 | ||
| Party H | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x220803…f7c7 | ||
| Party I | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2e4400…6817 | ||
| Party J | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa8aa4f…7ccb | ||
| Party K | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x56d58f…227e | ||
| Party L | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5c1e12…95be | ||
| Party M | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb10ca5…a0a5 | ||
| Party N | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd262e2…bf41 | ||
| Party O | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc444ec…2b9d | ||
| Party P | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0704a5…f89d | ||
| Party Q | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf16834…c839 | ||
| Party R | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8f5146…233b | ||
| Party S | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0b45dd…7bce | ||
| Party T | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcfb17c…df4b | ||
| Party U | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6fe4ee…dea5 | ||
| Party V | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5c7909…76f4 | ||
| Party W | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa4b7cb…0115 | ||
| Party X | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6d240f…9954 | ||
| Party Y | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa480a9…4be7 | ||
| Party Z | 2026-09-20 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0120b6…e9b3 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1) · stated precedence rule
- Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/russia-parliamentary-election-2nd-place/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/russia-parliamentary-election-2nd-place |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("russia-parliamentary-election-2nd-place") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6NC4SS84M0",
"slug": "russia-parliamentary-election-2nd-place",
"question": "Will a party other than United Russia finish in second place in the Russian parliamentary election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"russia",
"parliamentary-elections",
"2026",
"electoral-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 34,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 106943,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 26,
"rcg_caps": [
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}