How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the midterms? [ resolves 2027-02-01 (181D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 15 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 45 | 2027-02-01 | 3.0% | — | $423 | A | RSENATESEATS…E45 | ||
| Fewer than 45 | 2027-02-01 | 2.0% | — | $775 | A | RSENATESEATS…B45 | ||
| Exactly 46 | 2027-02-01 | 5.0% | — | $791 | A | RSENATESEATS…E46 | ||
| Exactly 47 | 2027-02-01 | 10.0% | — | $1.9K | A | RSENATESEATS…E47 | ||
| Exactly 48 | 2027-02-01 | 12.0% | — | $1.7K | A | RSENATESEATS…E48 | ||
| Exactly 49 | 2027-02-01 | 13.0% | $19 | $929 | A | RSENATESEATS…E49 | ||
| Exactly 50 | 2027-02-01 | 16.0% | — | $2.1K | A | RSENATESEATS…E50 | ||
| Exactly 51 | 2027-02-01 | 13.0% | $2 | $2.7K | A | RSENATESEATS…E51 | ||
| Exactly 52 | 2027-02-01 | 10.0% | — | $2.5K | A | RSENATESEATS…E52 | ||
| Exactly 53 | 2027-02-01 | 6.0% | — | $702 | A | RSENATESEATS…E53 | ||
| Exactly 54 | 2027-02-01 | 3.0% | — | $609 | A | RSENATESEATS…E54 | ||
| Exactly 55 | 2027-02-01 | 3.0% | — | $800 | A | RSENATESEATS…E55 | ||
| Exactly 56 | 2027-02-01 | 3.0% | — | $552 | A | RSENATESEATS…E56 | ||
| > 57 | 2027-02-01 | 8.0% | $188 | $4.0K | A | RSENATESEATS…A57 | ||
| Exactly 57 | 2027-02-01 | 3.0% | — | $600 | A | RSENATESEATS…E57 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | United States Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Republican party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "United States Congress" sources (1) · single authority
United States Congress committed source
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/rsenateseats-27/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/rsenateseats-27 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("rsenateseats-27") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-93ZNVQ37R3",
"slug": "rsenateseats-27",
"question": "How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the midterms?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate",
"republican-party",
"midterm-elections",
"seat-count",
"2026-midterms"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 15,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 20957,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "United States Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}