Will Elon Musk be the richest person on December 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 37 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 91.0% | $153 | $142K | B | 0x01529e…608f | ||
| Will Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | $245 | $174K | B | 0xeba714…479b | ||
| Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 1.3% | — | $87K | B | 0xca5e73…caae | ||
| Will Mark Zuckerberg be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.8% | $79 | $126K | B | 0x83f44c…7b99 | ||
| Will Bernard Arnault be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.7% | — | $365K | B | 0x461058…3e37 | ||
| Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.5% | — | $141K | B | 0x184e4a…fd7c | ||
| Will Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.4% | — | $55K | B | 0xe9eb11…98db | ||
| Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.4% | — | $307K | B | 0x440978…0791 | ||
| Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.4% | $1 | $336K | B | 0x350f0b…12df | ||
| Will Sergey Brin be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | $3 | $79K | B | 0xb6a7fc…41ef | ||
| Will Person A be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x3cc2eb…766e | ||
| Will Person C be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd1b108…1903 | ||
| Will Person E be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xcfec07…bb9e | ||
| Will Person G be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0697fc…4402 | ||
| Will Person I be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1bbcd5…a3df | ||
| Will Person K be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x77fa32…7a95 | ||
| Will Person M be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xefa758…9f50 | ||
| Will Person O be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa649b8…21a7 | ||
| Will Person Q be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xaf54db…7394 | ||
| Will Person S be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x88c4ad…9832 | ||
| Will Person U be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5eda71…5ff1 | ||
| Will Person W be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8f191e…377a | ||
| Will Person Y be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb651e6…dd9a | ||
| Will Person J be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf34d4d…60b8 | ||
| Will another individual be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb13f0c…59e6 | ||
| Will Person B be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xbbe399…8a2f | ||
| Will Person F be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9e1d0c…e9f8 | ||
| Will Person D be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x85a964…808d | ||
| Will Person H be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf5c16f…291c | ||
| Will Person L be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8e9f9c…2224 | ||
| Will Person N be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x667f6c…4a82 | ||
| Will Person P be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xef8347…8e7f | ||
| Will Person R be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x836140…9484 | ||
| Will Person T be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xbac3ca…a420 | ||
| Will Person V be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x14f114…200c | ||
| Will Person X be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe77b24…0445 | ||
| Will Person Z be richest person on December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xba0e21…3279 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | bloomberg.com | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/ recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/richest-person-on-december-31-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/richest-person-on-december-31-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("richest-person-on-december-31-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-8H09Q4GC25",
"slug": "richest-person-on-december-31-2026",
"question": "Will Elon Musk be the richest person on December 31, 2026?",
"category": "companies",
"tags": [
"companies",
"business",
"wealth-ranking",
"net-worth",
"billionaires",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 37,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1810931,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 72,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "bloomberg.com",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}