Who will be the richest person on December 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 37 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elon Musk | 2026-12-31 | 93.1% | $132 | $178K | A | 0x01529e…608f | ||
| Warren Buffett | 2026-12-31 | 1.4% | $30 | $88K | A | 0xca5e73…caae | ||
| Sergey Brin | 2026-12-31 | 1.4% | $30 | $85K | A | 0xb6a7fc…41ef | ||
| Larry Page | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | $30 | $143K | A | 0x184e4a…fd7c | ||
| Mark Zuckerberg | 2026-12-31 | 0.7% | $30 | $131K | A | 0x83f44c…7b99 | ||
| Steve Ballmer | 2026-12-31 | 0.6% | $30 | $308K | A | 0x440978…0791 | ||
| Bernard Arnault | 2026-12-31 | 0.4% | $30 | $365K | A | 0x461058…3e37 | ||
| Jeff Bezos | 2026-12-31 | 0.4% | $30 | $337K | A | 0x350f0b…12df | ||
| Jensen Huang | 2026-12-31 | 0.4% | $30 | $177K | A | 0xeba714…479b | ||
| Larry Ellison | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | $30 | $58K | A | 0xe9eb11…98db | ||
| Another individual | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb13f0c…59e6 | ||
| Person A | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x3cc2eb…766e | ||
| Person B | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbbe399…8a2f | ||
| Person C | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd1b108…1903 | ||
| Person D | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x85a964…808d | ||
| Person E | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xcfec07…bb9e | ||
| Person F | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9e1d0c…e9f8 | ||
| Person G | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0697fc…4402 | ||
| Person H | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf5c16f…291c | ||
| Person I | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1bbcd5…a3df | ||
| Person J | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf34d4d…60b8 | ||
| Person K | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x77fa32…7a95 | ||
| Person L | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8e9f9c…2224 | ||
| Person M | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xefa758…9f50 | ||
| Person N | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x667f6c…4a82 | ||
| Person O | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa649b8…21a7 | ||
| Person P | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xef8347…8e7f | ||
| Person Q | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xaf54db…7394 | ||
| Person R | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x836140…9484 | ||
| Person S | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x88c4ad…9832 | ||
| Person T | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbac3ca…a420 | ||
| Person U | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5eda71…5ff1 | ||
| Person V | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x14f114…200c | ||
| Person W | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8f191e…377a | ||
| Person X | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe77b24…0445 | ||
| Person Y | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb651e6…dd9a | ||
| Person Z | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xba0e21…3279 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/ sources (4) · stated precedence rule
- bloomberg.com venue-listed
- forbes.com venue-listed
- Bloomberg Billionaires Index source of record from rules text · editorial
- Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/richest-person-on-december-31-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/richest-person-on-december-31-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("richest-person-on-december-31-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-8H09Q4GC25",
"slug": "richest-person-on-december-31-2026",
"question": "Who will be the richest person on December 31, 2026?",
"category": "companies",
"tags": [
"companies",
"billionaire-ranking",
"wealth-net-worth",
"2026",
"business",
"richest-person"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 37,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1869743,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 92,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bloomberg Billionaires Index",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "bloomberg.com",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "forbes.com",
"url": "https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg Billionaires Index",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}