Will Republicans hold more than 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? [ resolves — ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 11 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47 or fewer | — | 100.0% | $208 | $168K | A | 0x46c862…27a8 | ||
| Exactly 48 | — | 0.0% | $377 | $40K | A | 0xb2ce24…1253 | ||
| Exactly 49 | — | 0.0% | $203 | $51K | A | 0x2fb2b4…ed56 | ||
| Exactly 50 | — | 14.0% | $622 | $116K | A | 0xa81e63…88fb | ||
| Exactly 51 | — | 14.0% | $437 | $221K | A | 0xf9b68b…456c | ||
| Exactly 52 | — | 12.9% | $296 | $586K | A | 0x4b6d35…0486 | ||
| Exactly 53 | — | 0.0% | — | $69K | A | 0x812d9e…c1c2 | ||
| Exactly 54 | — | 1.7% | — | $763K | A | 0x38fa30…0480 | ||
| Exactly 55 | — | 1.7% | $349 | $430K | A | 0x77051d…fb0c | ||
| Exactly 56 | — | 1.3% | $445 | $183K | A | 0xe831d8…63ad | ||
| 57 or more | — | 0.0% | — | $112K | A | 0x5d7634…79fc |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (4) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text official certification from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 100% |
| NO | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (5 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Exactly 49 GOP Senate seats stays a long shot at 11% 11% · $287K 24h
- At 11%, Polymarket assigns low but non-trivial odds to Republicans finishing with precisely 49 Senate seats after 2026.
- $287K represents 63% of all-time volume, the contract's dominant session by a wide margin.
- High all-time share on a specific-outcome contract signals traders are using it to hedge or express tail views on the Senate balance.
- Resolves when the 2026 midterm final seat count is certified.
- Odds of Republicans topping out at 47 seats hold above 50% 56% · $358K 24h
- At 56%, Polymarket prices it as slightly more likely than not that Republicans end up with 47 or fewer Senate seats after 2026.
- $358K in 24h is 38% of all-time volume, marking this as one of the contract's most active sessions.
- A majority-probability price on a capped-seat outcome reflects genuine Democratic pickup expectations in the Senate.
- Resolves when the final 2026 midterm Senate seat count is certified.
- Exactly 49 GOP Senate seats stays a long shot at 10% 10% · $265K 24h
- Polymarket prices the exact-49-seat outcome at just 10%, treating it as a tail scenario.
- 62% of all-time volume arrived today, signaling traders are collapsing seat-count probability across all brackets on Election Day.
- Bracket-specific contracts are absorbing flow as overall Senate map resolves tonight.
- Resolves on certified 2026 midterm Senate seat totals.
- Exactly 48 GOP Senate seats priced as a low-odds bracket at 14% 14% · $250K 24h
- Polymarket prices the exact-48-seat bracket at 14%, low probability but above pure tail.
- 53% of all-time volume arrived today as bracket contracts resolve simultaneously on Election Night.
- Flow here is consistent with hedging against the middle scenario between a narrow GOP hold and a broader Democratic sweep.
- Resolves on certified 2026 Senate seat count.
- Republicans holding 47 or fewer Senate seats favored at 56% 56% · $355K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democrats netting enough seats to push Republicans to 47 or below at 56%, a slight favorite.
- 38% of all-time volume in one session signals significant conviction shift as results trickle in.
- This is the broadest Democratic-gain bracket; 56% here implies the floor outcome for GOP losses is being treated as the base case.
- Resolves on certified 2026 midterm Senate totals.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/republican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections-927/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/republican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections-927 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("republican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections-927") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-93ZW3RYZF7",
"slug": "republican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections-927",
"question": "Will Republicans hold more than 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
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"politics",
"congress",
"senate-control",
"2026-midterms",
"gop-seats"
],
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"market_count": 11,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2741403,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 85,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
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"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
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{
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"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
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"resolution_clarity_grade": {
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"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
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"venues_covered": {
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}