Will Ron DeSantis win the Florida Republican gubernatorial primary? [ resolves 2026-08-18 (26D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 23 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Donalds | 2026-08-18 | 96.0% | $576 | $165K | C | 0xd4a3de…04f9 | ||
| James Fishback | 2026-08-18 | 3.0% | $2.1K | $833K | C | 0xd8b94a…3466 | ||
| Jay Collins | 2026-08-18 | 0.5% | $276 | $754K | C | 0x568ef5…cc40 | ||
| Wilton Simpson | 2026-08-18 | 0.1% | — | $62K | C | 0x641558…44c8 | ||
| Casey DeSantis | 2026-08-18 | 0.1% | — | $209K | C | 0x21cadb…a50e | ||
| Jimmy Patronis | 2026-08-18 | 0.1% | — | $51K | C | 0x5393c4…20c6 | ||
| Matt Gaetz | 2026-08-18 | 0.1% | — | $40K | C | 0xe35b9f…46c8 | ||
| Candidate A | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x67ed65…3607 | ||
| Candidate B | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xba60bf…0e0f | ||
| Candidate C | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3a594f…bae4 | ||
| Candidate D | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe425cf…d07f | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbe2343…d570 | ||
| Candidate F | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x713215…67ce | ||
| Candidate G | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x49f569…2bfa | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x978030…be67 | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf079c0…1747 | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbc1e0a…98b2 | ||
| Candidate K | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbcd89e…f151 | ||
| Candidate L | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc85b13…8b05 | ||
| Candidate M | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa1af58…737d | ||
| Candidate N | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x75ea3c…ea1b | ||
| Candidate O | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4406f1…a2aa | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1c227f…b5e7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.
If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- Florida Republican Party from rules text · editorial
- credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/republican-nominee-for-florida-governor/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/republican-nominee-for-florida-governor |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("republican-nominee-for-florida-governor") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-PFTTW468Y8",
"slug": "republican-nominee-for-florida-governor",
"question": "Will Ron DeSantis win the Florida Republican gubernatorial primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"florida",
"republican-primary",
"2026",
"gubernatorial"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 23,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2114023,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 66,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Florida Republican Party",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}