Will a Republican win the Florida Governor primary election? [ resolves 2026-08-18 (76D) ]
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 23 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor | 2026-08-18 | 93.0% | $1.2K | $130K | C | 0xd4a3de…04f9 | ||
| Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor | 2026-08-18 | 8.0% | $3.9K | $441K | C | 0xd8b94a…3466 | ||
| Will Jay Collins be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor | 2026-08-18 | 1.1% | $3 | $717K | C | 0x568ef5…cc40 | ||
| Will Wilton Simpson be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor | 2026-08-18 | 0.1% | — | $58K | C | 0x641558…44c8 | ||
| Will Casey DeSantis be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor | 2026-08-18 | 0.1% | $1.5K | $197K | C | 0x21cadb…a50e | ||
| Will Matt Gaetz be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor | 2026-08-18 | 0.1% | — | $38K | C | 0xe35b9f…46c8 | ||
| Will Jimmy Patronis be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor | 2026-08-18 | 0.1% | — | $45K | C | 0x5393c4…20c6 | ||
| Will Candidate B be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xba60bf…0e0f | ||
| Will Candidate D be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe425cf…d07f | ||
| Will Candidate F be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x713215…67ce | ||
| Will Candidate H be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x978030…be67 | ||
| Will Candidate J be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbc1e0a…98b2 | ||
| Will Candidate L be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc85b13…8b05 | ||
| Will Candidate N be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x75ea3c…ea1b | ||
| Will another candidate be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1c227f…b5e7 | ||
| Will Candidate A be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x67ed65…3607 | ||
| Will Candidate C be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3a594f…bae4 | ||
| Will Candidate E be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbe2343…d570 | ||
| Will Candidate G be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x49f569…2bfa | ||
| Will Candidate I be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf079c0…1747 | ||
| Will Candidate K be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbcd89e…f151 | ||
| Will Candidate M be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa1af58…737d | ||
| Will Candidate O be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor | 2026-08-18 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4406f1…a2aa |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Florida, scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026.
If no 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Florida Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/republican-nominee-for-florida-governor/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/republican-nominee-for-florida-governor.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("republican-nominee-for-florida-governor") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-PFTTW468Y8",
"slug": "republican-nominee-for-florida-governor",
"question": "Will a Republican win the Florida Governor primary election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"florida",
"republican-primary",
"2026",
"gubernatorial"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 23,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1626854,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 54,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}