Will the Quebec Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Quebec general election? [ resolves 2026-10-05 (74D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 33 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Québécois | 2026-10-05 | 70.0% | $212 | $72K | A | 0x30d4a6…a10e | ||
| Coalition Avenir Québec | 2026-10-05 | 13.0% | — | $97K | A | 0xc7bc5d…9e76 | ||
| Parti libéral du Québec | 2026-10-05 | 13.0% | — | $93K | A | 0x9b609d…f323 | ||
| Québec solidaire | 2026-10-05 | 0.2% | $139 | $88K | A | 0x4c7d31…2560 | ||
| Parti conservateur du Québec | 2026-10-05 | 0.2% | $1.3K | $191K | A | 0xb79b3e…c5aa | ||
| Parti vert du Québec | 2026-10-05 | 0.1% | $321 | $152K | A | 0x72a433…3352 | ||
| Party A | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x11544a…e20c | ||
| Party B | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1bbcea…9cfe | ||
| Party C | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5f32d9…d5fa | ||
| Party D | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x138575…0ddb | ||
| Party E | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0bdebe…6edf | ||
| Party F | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbd90e6…c55d | ||
| Party G | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe7c56c…1218 | ||
| Party H | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7b4053…c31b | ||
| Party I | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x76362f…b947 | ||
| Party J | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x6ef37c…a439 | ||
| Party K | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x49f89b…51a5 | ||
| Party L | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0fe637…4beb | ||
| Party M | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xcaad83…3505 | ||
| Party N | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7ddaef…fa84 | ||
| Party O | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xcf34bd…7c18 | ||
| Party P | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x75647a…e96e | ||
| Party Q | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1333d7…92ed | ||
| Party R | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x654008…ddf1 | ||
| Party S | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe3b0e4…aadc | ||
| Party T | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x30b24f…bb85 | ||
| Party U | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xefc7a2…0632 | ||
| Party V | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1d2a82…4a5c | ||
| Party W | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x72ed1f…df5b | ||
| Party X | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x18316e…e3d4 | ||
| Party Y | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9983ff…bcf1 | ||
| Party Z | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7f16b1…b3fa | ||
| Another party | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb5c753…d7a4 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- electionsquebec.qc.ca venue-listed
- Élections Québec source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/quebec-general-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/quebec-general-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("quebec-general-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-V8ZRPB15K1",
"slug": "quebec-general-election-winner",
"question": "Will the Quebec Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Quebec general election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"quebec",
"2026",
"canadian-politics",
"seat-allocation"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 33,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 692466,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Élections Québec",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "electionsquebec.qc.ca",
"url": "https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Élections Québec",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}