Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 42.0% | $759 | $297K | C | 0x0fcfcf…d3dc |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government from rules text a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
recent wire items
- Hegseth out as Defense Secretary by year-end sits near 50-50 Polymarket 33%
- Polymarket prices Pete Hegseth's departure as Secretary of Defense by December 31 at 33%, a meaningful but minority probability.
- Post-midterm Republican losses and the White House shake-up that installed Stephen Miller as chief of staff raise cabinet uncertainty, but the market still leans toward Hegseth staying.
- At 33%, the market treats Hegseth's removal as a plausible but not base-case outcome through year-end.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; departure must be confirmed by credible reporting of resignation, firing, or Senate removal before December 31.
- Hegseth out as Defense Secretary by year-end sits near 50% Polymarket 42%
- Polymarket puts 42% on Pete Hegseth departing as Secretary of Defense by December 31, 2026.
- Trump's public backing of Hegseth is not moving the needle to low odds; the market holds near 50%, signaling continued doubt about Hegseth's tenure through year-end.
- The Republican midterm drubbing and incoming Democratic Congress raise the political pressure environment that the contract is pricing.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; the near-50% pricing means the market is treating this as a genuine coin-flip through the end of the year.
- Hegseth out as Defense Secretary by year-end holds near 30% Polymarket 31%
- The Polymarket contract on Hegseth departing as Secretary of Defense by December 31 stands at 31%.
- Hegseth firing the Pentagon's top military planner is a significant escalation of his authority, but the market puts only about one-in-three odds on his own departure this year.
- The market is not pricing in the dismissal as a precursor to Hegseth's own removal, the probability stays well below 50%.
- With the December 31 deadline weeks away, the Kalshi contract on his June 30 departure (CM-EVT-L20R2VDVG3) has no price available; the Polymarket year-end read is the primary signal.
- Pete Hegseth out as Defense Secretary by year-end holds near 25% Polymarket 21%
- Polymarket prices 21% on Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth departing by December 31, 2026, a meaningful but minority probability.
- Taxpayer-funded ad spending and midterm campaign activity suggest the administration is focused on consolidation, not cabinet reshuffling, broadly consistent with the sub-25% pricing.
- No confirmed reporting of imminent Hegseth departure; the 21% price reflects accumulated background risk rather than a specific catalyst.
- Resolution via UMA oracle requires Hegseth to officially leave the role; acting or interim replacements would also satisfy the contract.
- Hegseth out as Defense Secretary by December stays near 25 percent Polymarket 25%
- Polymarket prices 25% on Pete Hegseth leaving as Secretary of Defense by December 31, resolving via UMA oracle.
- Driscoll's resignation amid friction with Hegseth is a concrete signal of Pentagon tension, and trading volume on this contract rose 1,799% day over day.
- The surge in volume indicates fresh market attention on the Hegseth exit question following the Driscoll news.
- At 25%, the market does not treat Hegseth's departure as a base case, but the volume spike suggests the Driscoll exit is viewed as a meaningful new data point.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-JWSH7Q94S8",
"slug": "pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-december-31",
"question": "Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"us-politics",
"cabinet-turnover",
"trump-administration",
"2026",
"executive-personnel"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 296930,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 48,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}