Will OpenAI have an initial public offering by 2026? [ resolved 2026-07-01 ]
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 2025 | 2026-01-01 | 100.0% | — | $496K | C | 0x8da154…98bc | ||
| December 31 2026 | — | 18.0% | $836 | $838K | C | 0x66f5b8…3432 | ||
| September 30 2026 | — | 4.0% | $939 | $93K | C | 0x23e522…3c63 | ||
| August 31 2026 | — | 0.8% | $14 | $90K | C | 0x8e5b3c…d04c | ||
| June 30 2026 | 2026-07-01 | 0.1% | — | $957K | C | 0x753e60…dd58 | ||
| July 31 2026 | — | 0.0% | — | $113K | C | 0x1146a9…5833 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (3)
- official company announcements from rules text · editorial
- credible news sources from rules text · editorial
- consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- OpenAI IPO by July 31 priced out at 0% on Polymarket 0% · $65K 24h
- Market prices zero probability of an OpenAI IPO filing or listing by July 31, 2026, outcome is ruled out.
- Polymarket draws $65K in 24h, 36% of all-time volume, despite the 0% price, confirming rather than discovering the view.
- Volume at a zero price indicates a final settlement rush or late traders closing positions ahead of expiry.
- Resolves YES only if OpenAI completes an IPO on or before July 31, 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/openai-ipo-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/openai-ipo-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("openai-ipo-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-1J5WJ8DGM8",
"slug": "openai-ipo-by",
"question": "Will OpenAI have an initial public offering by 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"openai-ipo",
"ai-commercialization",
"tech-public-markets",
"corporate-milestone",
"finance"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 2587570,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official company announcements",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "credible news sources",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}