Will the Republican primary winner be determined by June 2026? [ resolved 2026-06-16 ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 23 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Tedford | 2026-06-16 | 100.0% | $280 | $13K | C | 0x9d6846…9597 | ||
| Jed Cochran | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | $2.2K | C | 0xf5d5ed…c746 | ||
| Nancy Dyson | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $228 | $2.8K | C | 0xace768…8bcd | ||
| Jackson Lahmeyer | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $790 | $14K | C | 0x6e47a5…d807 | ||
| Paul Royse | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | $2.0K | C | 0xa9a584…3a8e | ||
| Kelly B. Walsh | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | $2.1K | C | 0x371108…bccd | ||
| Candidate B | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x944a43…77ad | ||
| Candidate D | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xac6937…8e29 | ||
| Candidate F | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd915c8…911c | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf69ba0…704f | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc3c2f5…0a6c | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x258434…2ec0 | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x69dcc0…59de | ||
| Nathan Butterfield | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | $3.3K | C | 0x07077f…be08 | ||
| Kim David | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $270 | $4.8K | C | 0xfa104e…8dc1 | ||
| Courtney Gill | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | $2.0K | C | 0x88cd03…b06f | ||
| Dan Rooney | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | $389 | $5.0K | C | 0x0462cc…569e | ||
| Jackson Stallings | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | $2.6K | C | 0xe39340…61c7 | ||
| Todd Woods | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | $3.0K | C | 0x0e32ca…1654 | ||
| Candidate A | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x18ff67…99c3 | ||
| Candidate C | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9b5052…7425 | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x33f7f2…57c7 | ||
| Candidate G | 2026-06-16 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1a9949…0ab7 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 16, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- rnc.org venue-listed
- https://www.rnc.org/ from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? | polymarket | 2026-07-10 | 100% |
| NO | Will Courtney Gill be the Republican nominee for OK-01? | polymarket | 2026-07-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jackson Stallings be the Republican nominee for OK-01? | polymarket | 2026-07-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will Dan Rooney be the Republican nominee for OK-01? | polymarket | 2026-07-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will Nathan Butterfield be the Republican nominee for OK-01? | polymarket | 2026-07-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will Kim David be the Republican nominee for OK-01? | polymarket | 2026-07-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will Todd Woods be the Republican nominee for OK-01? | polymarket | 2026-07-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will Kelly B. Walsh be the Republican nominee for OK-01? | polymarket | 2026-07-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will Paul Royse be the Republican nominee for OK-01? | polymarket | 2026-07-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will Nancy Dyson be the Republican nominee for OK-01? | polymarket | 2026-07-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jed Cochran be the Republican nominee for OK-01? | polymarket | 2026-07-10 | 0% |
| NO | Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? | polymarket | 2026-07-10 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (12 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ok-01-republican-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ok-01-republican-primary-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ok-01-republican-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-8KTRBR2H14",
"slug": "ok-01-republican-primary-winner",
"question": "Will the Republican primary winner be determined by June 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"2026",
"republican-primary",
"oklahoma",
"us-house"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 23,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 57740,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.rnc.org/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "rnc.org",
"url": "https://www.rnc.org/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://www.rnc.org/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}