Will a Democrat win the NH-01 primary election? [ resolved 2026-09-08 ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 8, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01? | polymarket | 2026-09-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will Heath Howard be the Democratic nominee for NH-01? | polymarket | 2026-09-09 | 0% |
| NO | Will Carleigh Beriont be the Democratic nominee for NH-01? | polymarket | 2026-09-09 | 0% |
| YES | Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01? | polymarket | 2026-09-09 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (4 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Shaheen NH-01 bid stays a long shot through a volume spike 17% · $18K 24h
- Polymarket marks Shaheen at 17%, the market assigns her a meaningful but minority chance against Sullivan.
- $17.5K in 24h is 26% of all-time volume, mirroring the Sullivan spike as the same primary draws both sides.
- Paired volume across Sullivan and Shaheen contracts points to active two-sided positioning on the same race.
- Both contracts resolve on the Democratic primary outcome for NH-01.
- Traders pile into Sullivan as the NH-01 Dem primary front-runner 83% · $31K 24h
- Polymarket prices Sullivan at 83%, a strong but not locked-in lead with real tail risk remaining.
- $31K in 24h represents 31% of all-time volume, confirming a sharp burst of fresh attention.
- Elevated volume alongside an 83% price suggests late money is backing the front-runner ahead of a catalyst, likely a poll, endorsement, or filing deadline.
- Contract resolves on the Democratic primary winner for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District.
- Beriont NH-01 Dem nominee odds stay near zero 2% · $12K 24h
- Polymarket prices Beriont at 2%, the market reads her nomination as a remote outcome.
- 24h volume of $12K is 33% of all-time, mirroring the Sullivan spike and suggesting linked activity.
- Paired surge across both NH-01 contracts points to the same catalytic event, likely a primary deadline or poll drop, driving traders to reprice the full field simultaneously.
- Contract resolves on Democratic nominee certification for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District.
- Maura Sullivan holds at 83% for NH-01 Democratic spot 83% · $14K 24h
- Polymarket prices Sullivan at 83%, market views her as the likely Democratic nominee for NH-01.
- 24h volume of $13K is 44% of all-time flow, indicating a sharp uptick in attention to the race.
- Primary dynamics in NH-01, potentially linked to the DiLorenzo spike on the Republican side, are drawing bilateral interest.
- Resolves on the Democratic nominee for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District primary.
- Stefany Shaheen NH-01 Democratic nominee race stays wide open 41% · $11K 24h
- Polymarket prices Shaheen at 41%, a genuinely contested primary with meaningful opposition priced in.
- 24h volume of $11K is 38% of all-time, pointing to a specific catalyst driving fresh attention.
- At 41%, the market is far from crowning a frontrunner, a challenger event or poll likely triggered the spike.
- Resolves on the Democratic primary result for New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/nh-01-democratic-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/nh-01-democratic-primary-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("nh-01-democratic-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-BHSCBSRT91",
"slug": "nh-01-democratic-primary-winner",
"question": "Will a Democrat win the NH-01 primary election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"2026-us-midterms",
"new-hampshire",
"primary-races",
"democratic-primary"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 14805,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://democrats.org/",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}