Will a Serb be elected as a Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the next election? [ resolves 2026-10-04 (73D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 32 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Željka Cvijanović | 2026-10-04 | 72.0% | — | $18K | C | 0x518e0c…9b11 | ||
| Nebojša Vukanović | 2026-10-04 | 7.0% | — | $1.1K | C | 0x5d146e…6295 | ||
| Draško Stanivuković | 2026-10-04 | 7.0% | — | $667 | C | 0x9e51e7…312f | ||
| Branko Blanuša | 2026-10-04 | 2.1% | — | $797 | C | 0xb6a88f…2c79 | ||
| Siniša Karan | 2026-10-04 | 0.1% | — | $1.3K | C | 0x081605…254a | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x984e70…bb5c | ||
| Candidate A | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x733d2b…71d6 | ||
| Candidate B | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xed16c0…cbd5 | ||
| Candidate C | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5be0c5…5dca | ||
| Candidate D | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfd2189…e18b | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe66a0d…1899 | ||
| Candidate F | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x15dadb…9dc6 | ||
| Candidate G | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x157271…91ed | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd469c9…8a8b | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x37f907…1922 | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0bec34…7428 | ||
| Candidate K | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x62c853…f32a | ||
| Candidate L | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc09ff6…0c7d | ||
| Candidate M | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc0e10f…c955 | ||
| Candidate N | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc64084…9ab4 | ||
| Candidate O | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x237f86…3a15 | ||
| Candidate P | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1c6dcd…e528 | ||
| Candidate Q | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0f4d89…666b | ||
| Candidate R | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb28b2f…9833 | ||
| Candidate S | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x908fc8…058c | ||
| Candidate T | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcf52af…b091 | ||
| Candidate U | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x12c515…2b73 | ||
| Candidate V | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4d4d42…566a | ||
| Candidate W | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc1c6ba…c19c | ||
| Candidate X | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa0559b…fd00 | ||
| Candidate Y | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4c069d…5f8a | ||
| Candidate Z | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb35af9…4899 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.
If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba) from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-serb-presidency-member-of-bosnia-and-herzegovina/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-serb-presidency-member-of-bosnia-and-herzegovina |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("next-serb-presidency-member-of-bosnia-and-herzegovina") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-MDJDTCS8N7",
"slug": "next-serb-presidency-member-of-bosnia-and-herzegovina",
"question": "Will a Serb be elected as a Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina in the next election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"bosnia-herzegovina",
"serb-presidency",
"2026",
"balkans-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 32,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 21378,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}