Who will be the Senate Majority Leader in the next Congress? [ resolves 2027-01-03 (152D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 64 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck Schumer | 2027-01-03 | 91.0% | — | $13K | C | 0x99dcf0…79a9 | ||
| John Thune | 2027-01-03 | 48.0% | — | $22K | C | 0xe77b34…74d8 | ||
| Brian Schatz | 2027-01-03 | 6.0% | — | $2.8K | C | 0xfa1768…a628 | ||
| Tom Cotton | 2027-01-03 | 5.8% | — | $6.9K | C | 0x31352a…e65a | ||
| Steve Daines | 2027-01-03 | 0.5% | — | $24K | C | 0x31d22f…c333 | ||
| Patty Murray | 2027-01-03 | 0.5% | — | $5.0K | C | 0x9bb2ff…9e14 | ||
| John Barrasso | 2027-01-03 | 0.4% | — | $4.4K | C | 0xdc1ced…87a8 | ||
| Amy Klobuchar | 2027-01-03 | 0.2% | — | $4.2K | C | 0x010f83…9f67 | ||
| Cory Booker | 2027-01-03 | 0.2% | — | $3.8K | C | 0x68bdc8…ef5b | ||
| Mark Kelly | 2027-01-03 | 0.1% | — | $5.1K | C | 0x08dd73…250c | ||
| Lindsey Graham | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | $55K | C | 0x0f8ba4…c40b | ||
| Dick Durbin | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4270ac…7429 | ||
| John Cornyn | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe649e0…c4bd | ||
| Rick Scott | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4eaebe…3f82 | ||
| Person D | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf48c3e…2193 | ||
| Person E | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9dc534…60e0 | ||
| Person F | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x95587b…319a | ||
| Person G | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x68d8c4…651f | ||
| Person H | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x449771…8a8d | ||
| Person I | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x34b510…6815 | ||
| Person J | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x398cd8…70cc | ||
| Person K | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x889b14…be5b | ||
| Person L | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb4bff2…9bd6 | ||
| Person M | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa7ec2d…ee4e | ||
| Person N | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0e655a…2d8c | ||
| Person O | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x79a0fb…cf76 | ||
| Person P | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfaf364…dd24 | ||
| Person Q | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3112a3…e835 | ||
| Person R | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfe5ed4…a15f | ||
| Person S | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa44063…8024 | ||
| Person T | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6aee85…1589 | ||
| Person U | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x083ff5…9709 | ||
| Person V | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x778730…d988 | ||
| Person W | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcfabef…0b0a | ||
| Person X | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x50ab21…0820 | ||
| Person Y | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x11ee42…3a23 | ||
| Person Z | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xdf973b…4444 | ||
| Person AA | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x798fde…076e | ||
| Person AB | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x91221b…2f3e | ||
| Person AC | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5be3d2…b20c | ||
| Person AD | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2a39c0…e0db | ||
| Person AE | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x62b4b9…dc02 | ||
| Person AF | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfb26c4…c7ba | ||
| Person AG | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x86635f…1fcc | ||
| Person AH | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x82cbc1…092a | ||
| Person AI | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9fd716…2509 | ||
| Person AJ | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcc37e2…542b | ||
| Person AK | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1e1910…99ba | ||
| Person AL | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9cffce…9ade | ||
| Person AM | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd31cbf…c02c | ||
| Person AN | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x88b649…b509 | ||
| Person AO | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfdafba…4205 | ||
| Person AP | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd2ba95…ea98 | ||
| Person AQ | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x149958…eac4 | ||
| Person AR | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x38ad98…f602 | ||
| Person AS | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8bcd19…9b12 | ||
| Person AT | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc01bd7…ba94 | ||
| Person AU | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x04aca8…bafa | ||
| Person AV | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa5a98e…35a4 | ||
| Person AW | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x17edfb…7f8a | ||
| Person AX | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x450e4a…148a | ||
| Person AY | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2769fa…15a5 | ||
| Person AZ | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x887977…4dbb | ||
| Someone else | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3e14d9…fba2 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate.
If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Lindsey Graham be the next Senate Majority Leader? | polymarket | 2026-07-12 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Odds hold near 'yes' on Schumer reclaiming Senate majority leader 92% · $81K 24h
- 92% YES prices Schumer as a near-certain pick for Senate Majority Leader in the next Congress.
- Polymarket saw $81K in 24h, 48% of all-time contract volume, signaling a sharp burst of fresh attention.
- Volume surge likely tied to post-midterm Senate leadership positioning and any public whip-count signals.
- Contract resolves YES if Schumer is named Senate Majority Leader, NO if another Democrat takes the role.
- Schumer majority leader odds hold at 83% through fresh buying 83% · $37K 24h
- At 83%, Polymarket assigns Schumer a strong but not certain grip on the majority leader role.
- $37K in 24h covers 54% of all-time volume, the majority of price discovery is happening today.
- Volume spike may reflect Senate procedural news or a leadership challenge drawing fresh attention.
- Resolution tied to formal Senate Democratic caucus leadership selection.
- Traders back Schumer as next Senate Majority Leader 82% · $37K 24h
- At 82%, Polymarket treats Schumer's return as Majority Leader as the strong base case, leaving only 18% doubt.
- 24h volume of $37K represents 57% of all-time volume, showing renewed conviction rather than a one-off spike.
- Fresh buying at high odds suggests the market is pricing Senate control shifting to Democrats as near-certain near-term.
- Contract resolves when the Senate confirms its next Majority Leader following any leadership change.
- Graham Senate majority leader bid priced into long-shot territory 1% · $42K 24h
- Polymarket prices Graham at 1%, market assigns him virtually no path to Senate Majority Leader.
- $42K in 24h is 77% of a thin $55K all-time pool, indicating a concentrated, decisive flow event.
- Senate leadership race attention may reflect broader Thune succession chatter or caucus positioning news.
- Resolves upon next Senate Majority Leader selection; flows confirm consensus against Graham.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-senate-majority-leader-485/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-senate-majority-leader-485 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("next-senate-majority-leader-485") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZZZ60Y4302",
"slug": "next-senate-majority-leader-485",
"question": "Who will be the Senate Majority Leader in the next Congress?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"senate-leadership",
"2027-us-politics",
"congressional-elections",
"trump-era",
"gop-leadership"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 64,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 145947,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 70,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}