Who will be the Senate Majority Leader in the next Congress? [ resolves 2027-01-03 (164D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 64 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Thune | 2027-01-03 | 49.0% | $20 | $6.6K | C | 0xe77b34…74d8 | ||
| Chuck Schumer | 2027-01-03 | 39.0% | $44 | $11K | C | 0x99dcf0…79a9 | ||
| Brian Schatz | 2027-01-03 | 6.0% | — | $2.5K | C | 0xfa1768…a628 | ||
| Tom Cotton | 2027-01-03 | 5.8% | — | $5.9K | C | 0x31352a…e65a | ||
| Steve Daines | 2027-01-03 | 1.9% | $43 | $24K | C | 0x31d22f…c333 | ||
| Patty Murray | 2027-01-03 | 1.1% | — | $4.6K | C | 0x9bb2ff…9e14 | ||
| John Barrasso | 2027-01-03 | 0.7% | $40 | $3.6K | C | 0xdc1ced…87a8 | ||
| Amy Klobuchar | 2027-01-03 | 0.2% | $465 | $3.8K | C | 0x010f83…9f67 | ||
| Cory Booker | 2027-01-03 | 0.2% | $30 | $2.1K | C | 0x68bdc8…ef5b | ||
| Mark Kelly | 2027-01-03 | 0.2% | — | $4.6K | C | 0x08dd73…250c | ||
| Person AV | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa5a98e…35a4 | ||
| Person AB | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x91221b…2f3e | ||
| Person AD | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2a39c0…e0db | ||
| John Cornyn | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe649e0…c4bd | ||
| Person F | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x95587b…319a | ||
| Person K | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x889b14…be5b | ||
| Person N | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0e655a…2d8c | ||
| Person V | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x778730…d988 | ||
| Person X | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x50ab21…0820 | ||
| Person AF | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfb26c4…c7ba | ||
| Person D | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf48c3e…2193 | ||
| Person I | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x34b510…6815 | ||
| Person L | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb4bff2…9bd6 | ||
| Person O | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x79a0fb…cf76 | ||
| Person Q | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3112a3…e835 | ||
| Person T | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6aee85…1589 | ||
| Person AM | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd31cbf…c02c | ||
| Person AO | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfdafba…4205 | ||
| Lindsey Graham | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | $12K | C | 0x0f8ba4…c40b | ||
| Rick Scott | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4eaebe…3f82 | ||
| Person G | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x68d8c4…651f | ||
| Person R | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfe5ed4…a15f | ||
| Person W | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcfabef…0b0a | ||
| Person Y | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x11ee42…3a23 | ||
| Dick Durbin | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4270ac…7429 | ||
| Person E | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9dc534…60e0 | ||
| Person H | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x449771…8a8d | ||
| Person J | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x398cd8…70cc | ||
| Person M | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa7ec2d…ee4e | ||
| Person P | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfaf364…dd24 | ||
| Person S | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa44063…8024 | ||
| Person U | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x083ff5…9709 | ||
| Person AA | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x798fde…076e | ||
| Person AC | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5be3d2…b20c | ||
| Person AE | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x62b4b9…dc02 | ||
| Person AK | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1e1910…99ba | ||
| Person Z | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xdf973b…4444 | ||
| Person AG | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x86635f…1fcc | ||
| Person AH | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x82cbc1…092a | ||
| Person AI | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9fd716…2509 | ||
| Person AJ | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcc37e2…542b | ||
| Person AL | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9cffce…9ade | ||
| Person AP | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd2ba95…ea98 | ||
| Person AN | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x88b649…b509 | ||
| Person AQ | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x149958…eac4 | ||
| Person AR | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x38ad98…f602 | ||
| Person AS | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8bcd19…9b12 | ||
| Person AT | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc01bd7…ba94 | ||
| Person AU | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x04aca8…bafa | ||
| Person AZ | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x887977…4dbb | ||
| Someone else | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3e14d9…fba2 | ||
| Person AW | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x17edfb…7f8a | ||
| Person AY | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2769fa…15a5 | ||
| Person AX | 2027-01-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x450e4a…148a |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election.
This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate.
If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Lindsey Graham be the next Senate Majority Leader? | polymarket | 2026-07-12 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Graham Senate majority leader bid priced into long-shot territory 1% · $42K 24h
- Polymarket prices Graham at 1%, market assigns him virtually no path to Senate Majority Leader.
- $42K in 24h is 77% of a thin $55K all-time pool, indicating a concentrated, decisive flow event.
- Senate leadership race attention may reflect broader Thune succession chatter or caucus positioning news.
- Resolves upon next Senate Majority Leader selection; flows confirm consensus against Graham.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-senate-majority-leader-485/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-senate-majority-leader-485 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("next-senate-majority-leader-485") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZZZ60Y4302",
"slug": "next-senate-majority-leader-485",
"question": "Who will be the Senate Majority Leader in the next Congress?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"senate-leadership",
"congress",
"2027",
"us-politics",
"leadership-succession"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 64,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 80376,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 70,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}