Will a new Premier of Quebec be elected by the next Quebec general election? [ resolves 2026-10-05 (74D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 29 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul St-Pierre Plamondon | 2026-10-05 | 69.0% | — | $13K | C | 0x610344…c825 | ||
| Christine Fréchette | 2026-10-05 | 14.0% | $685 | $15K | C | 0xa43974…9231 | ||
| Charles Milliard | 2026-10-05 | 14.0% | — | $6.6K | C | 0x5e4594…08b4 | ||
| Ruba Ghazal | 2026-10-05 | 0.3% | $8 | $3.8K | C | 0xce9914…213a | ||
| Sol Zanetti | 2026-10-05 | 0.2% | $8 | $5.7K | C | 0xcb4977…65f6 | ||
| Bernard Drainville | 2026-10-05 | 0.1% | $8 | $18K | C | 0x0b6aa7…df26 | ||
| Éric Duhaime | 2026-10-05 | 0.1% | $8 | $8.2K | C | 0xc7b0c4…5973 | ||
| Someone else | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0384b7…45b8 | ||
| Person A | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x391c6a…d298 | ||
| Person B | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0adad9…7178 | ||
| Person C | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x37c2e0…ca5b | ||
| Person D | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xca557a…4fbf | ||
| Person E | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x501cee…bc7f | ||
| Person F | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x99e779…e163 | ||
| Person G | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3179cc…1e1b | ||
| Person H | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd823e7…cfc1 | ||
| Person I | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x24e54e…d709 | ||
| Person J | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4eb696…4e18 | ||
| Person K | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8a019e…6e41 | ||
| Person L | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x175d9f…d38d | ||
| Person M | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4a32be…1550 | ||
| Person N | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x70c7a5…efe6 | ||
| Person O | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0b7501…4431 | ||
| Person P | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd2c4ee…237b | ||
| Person Q | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2bdd4d…d116 | ||
| Person R | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8e447d…001a | ||
| Person S | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x54190a…5a74 | ||
| Person T | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc662f1…8642 | ||
| Person U | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x13fe47…80c0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The 2026 Quebec general election is scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
- official information from the Government of Quebec from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-premier-of-quebec-594/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-premier-of-quebec-594 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("next-premier-of-quebec-594") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-X4XRMN8RJ9",
"slug": "next-premier-of-quebec-594",
"question": "Will a new Premier of Quebec be elected by the next Quebec general election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"quebec",
"canada",
"2026",
"executive-leadership"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 29,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 69777,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the Government of Quebec",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}