Will a new Premier of Quebec be elected by the next Quebec general election? [ resolved 2026-10-06 ]
Will Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 29 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Someone else | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0384b7…45b8 | ||
| Person A | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x391c6a…d298 | ||
| Person B | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0adad9…7178 | ||
| Person C | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x37c2e0…ca5b | ||
| Person D | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xca557a…4fbf | ||
| Person E | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x501cee…bc7f | ||
| Person F | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x99e779…e163 | ||
| Person G | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3179cc…1e1b | ||
| Person H | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd823e7…cfc1 | ||
| Person I | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x24e54e…d709 | ||
| Person J | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4eb696…4e18 | ||
| Person K | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8a019e…6e41 | ||
| Person L | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x175d9f…d38d | ||
| Person M | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4a32be…1550 | ||
| Person N | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x70c7a5…efe6 | ||
| Person O | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0b7501…4431 | ||
| Person P | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd2c4ee…237b | ||
| Person Q | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2bdd4d…d116 | ||
| Person R | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8e447d…001a | ||
| Person S | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x54190a…5a74 | ||
| Person T | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc662f1…8642 | ||
| Person U | 2026-10-05 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x13fe47…80c0 | ||
| Paul St-Pierre Plamondon | 2026-10-06 | 100.0% | $7 | $15K | C | 0x610344…c825 | ||
| Bernard Drainville | 2026-10-06 | 0.0% | — | $57K | C | 0x0b6aa7…df26 | ||
| Christine Fréchette | 2026-10-06 | 0.0% | — | $21K | C | 0xa43974…9231 | ||
| Charles Milliard | 2026-10-06 | 0.0% | $5 | $8.1K | C | 0x5e4594…08b4 | ||
| Ruba Ghazal | 2026-10-06 | 0.0% | — | $32K | C | 0xce9914…213a | ||
| Éric Duhaime | 2026-10-06 | 0.0% | $112 | $46K | C | 0xc7b0c4…5973 | ||
| Sol Zanetti | 2026-10-06 | 0.0% | — | $47K | C | 0xcb4977…65f6 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The 2026 Quebec general election is scheduled to be held no later than October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Quebec as a result of the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Quebec; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
official information from the Government of Quebec from rules text a consensus of credible reporting from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Sol Zanetti be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? | polymarket | 2026-10-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will Éric Duhaime be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? | polymarket | 2026-10-21 | 0% |
| YES | Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? | polymarket | 2026-10-21 | 100% |
| NO | Will Ruba Ghazal be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? | polymarket | 2026-10-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will Charles Milliard be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? | polymarket | 2026-10-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? | polymarket | 2026-10-21 | 0% |
| NO | Will Bernard Drainville be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? | polymarket | 2026-10-21 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (7 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Fréchette Quebec premier odds sit at 32% on fresh bets 32% · $12K 24h
- Polymarket prices Fréchette at 32%, market assigns her roughly one-in-three odds of becoming Quebec's next premier.
- 24h volume of $12K is 28% of all-time flow, a moderate but notable single-session pickup.
- Quebec provincial polling or party developments ahead of the 2026 election appear to be drawing capital.
- Resolves on the premier following the 2026 Quebec provincial election.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-premier-of-quebec-594/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-premier-of-quebec-594 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("next-premier-of-quebec-594") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-X4XRMN8RJ9",
"slug": "next-premier-of-quebec-594",
"question": "Will a new Premier of Quebec be elected by the next Quebec general election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"quebec",
"canada",
"2026",
"executive-leadership"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 29,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 225643,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the Government of Quebec",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}