Will a current leader lose power before 2027, excluding Viktor Orbán? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 24 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 57.0% | $6.6K | $62K | C | 0x45bdbc…8d57 | ||
| Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 23.0% | $2.7K | $37K | C | 0xc8aaa8…7708 | ||
| Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 7.9% | $1.2K | $24K | C | 0x068b8f…cd7b | ||
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 2.6% | $219 | $27K | C | 0x1cd1a6…e9b7 | ||
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 2.4% | $1.5K | $30K | C | 0x0aa333…f84a | ||
| Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 1.8% | $1.5K | $22K | C | 0xa8e956…d56a | ||
| Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 1.5% | $196 | $21K | C | 0x53f01b…7ce3 | ||
| Will no listed leader be out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 1.5% | $2.5K | $39K | C | 0x84a456…02f6 | ||
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 1.3% | $111 | $30K | C | 0xa1b919…40aa | ||
| Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 1.2% | $3.2K | $19K | C | 0x55118d…6f52 | ||
| Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 1.2% | $162 | $26K | C | 0xed2b27…42a4 | ||
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 0.9% | $448 | $20K | C | 0x4900c2…5943 | ||
| Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 0.7% | $179 | $16K | C | 0xaffa29…392b | ||
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 0.6% | $269 | $18K | C | 0xeca367…4530 | ||
| Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 0.5% | $262 | $18K | C | 0x765ef4…9379 | ||
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 0.5% | $102 | $22K | C | 0x8c3334…c9a4 | ||
| Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | $191 | $19K | C | 0xa92264…e916 | ||
| Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $111 | $20K | C | 0x2da5c3…edad | ||
| Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $605 | $18K | C | 0x2e396a…881b | ||
| Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $96 | $15K | C | 0xd258e8…9578 | ||
| Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $85 | $18K | C | 0xe2dd4a…154e | ||
| Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $96 | $22K | C | 0x65f8da…5cc9 | ||
| Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $151 | $20K | C | 0x2a5982…9670 | ||
| Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027 | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | $87 | $15K | C | 0x416c70…253b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-2FLCV9PNS4",
"slug": "next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban",
"question": "Will a current leader lose power before 2027, excluding Viktor Orbán?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"geopolitics",
"leadership-transitions",
"executive-power",
"2026",
"electoral-politics"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 24,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 577806,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 34,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}