Will a next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 2026? [ resolves 2026-06 – 2026-08 ]
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 7, 2026?
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 16 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 5, | 2026-06-06 | 1.0% | — | $2.5K | B | 0x4c94f8…84a2 | ||
| June 12, | 2026-06-15 | 0.1% | — | $17K | B | 0x01e653…24c8 | ||
| June 19, | 2026-06-20 | 0.3% | — | $14K | B | 0x296156…fa01 | ||
| June 26, | 2026-06-27 | 0.4% | — | $20K | B | 0x253108…50f4 | ||
| June 30, | 2026-07-01 | 0.1% | — | $57K | B | 0x7a6622…7261 | ||
| July 3, | 2026-07-04 | 0.1% | — | $3.6K | B | 0xa59aa5…03f5 | ||
| July 10, | 2026-07-11 | 0.1% | — | $18K | B | 0x18f294…ab8c | ||
| July 17, | 2026-07-18 | 0.5% | — | $18K | B | 0x6aa0fc…4e65 | ||
| July 24, | 2026-07-24 | 0.0% | $6 | $18K | B | 0x6a4370…f6b6 | ||
| July 27, | 2026-07-27 | 0.0% | — | $449 | B | 0x432147…d61d | ||
| July 28, | 2026-07-28 | 0.0% | — | $2.0K | B | 0x1bdb35…4d98 | ||
| July 29, | 2026-07-29 | 0.0% | — | $1.3K | B | 0x6dc21e…30ab | ||
| July 30, | 2026-07-30 | 0.0% | $232 | $6.4K | B | 0x41a659…4adb | ||
| July 31, | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | $1.2K | $79K | B | 0xe105fe…9c7b | ||
| August 7, | 2026-08-07 | 63.0% | $1.3K | $5.5K | B | 0x61a5b0…4a64 | ||
| August 31, | 2026-08-31 | 85.0% | $2 | $1.9K | B | 0xbf1aa1…db9e |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- official information from Google source of record from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-08-01 | 0% |
| NO | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 30, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-07-31 | 0% |
| NO | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 29, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-07-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 28, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
| NO | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 27, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-07-28 | 0% |
| NO | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 24, 2026? | polymarket | 2026-07-25 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (6 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-byptptpt/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-byptptpt |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-byptptpt") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-9NVGFL7FB0",
"slug": "next-google-gemini-pro-model-released-byptptpt",
"question": "Will a next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai",
"tech",
"google",
"gemini",
"large-language-models"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 16,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 264307,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "official information from Google",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from Google",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}