Will a new French president be elected in the next French Presidential Election? [ resolves 2027-04-30 (281D) ]

polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

polymarket 128 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Marine Le Pen	2027-04-30	29.6%	$16K	$1.64M	B	`0x812631…53aa`
Édouard Philippe	2027-04-30	26.0%	$11K	$1.19M	B	`0x46f2f4…5ae8`
Jean-Luc Mélenchon	2027-04-30	12.0%	$2.2K	$1.09M	B	`0x174ea8…2be8`
Jordan Bardella	2027-04-30	3.9%	$2.7K	$1.77M	B	`0x116638…06be`
Bruno Retailleau	2027-04-30	2.8%	$2.3K	$1.90M	B	`0xc32a54…be1d`
François Hollande	2027-04-30	2.8%	$2.0K	$1.39M	B	`0xa203cc…610b`
Gabriel Attal	2027-04-30	2.5%	$2.2K	$1.87M	B	`0x618953…ec3e`
David Lisnard	2027-04-30	2.0%	$1.2K	$1.54M	B	`0xce6105…8d56`
Raphaël Glucksmann	2027-04-30	1.8%	$4.5K	$1.34M	B	`0xcfc6e0…8e1b`
Dominique de Villepin	2027-04-30	1.8%	$360	$1.57M	B	`0x20fd4c…aed1`
Sébastien Lecornu	2027-04-30	1.5%	$181	$1.31M	B	`0x934225…013f`
Sarah Knafo	2027-04-30	0.9%	$376	$1.64M	B	`0x12c5b5…8b81`
Éric Zemmour	2027-04-30	0.8%	$1.5K	$1.89M	B	`0x290b3a…3281`
Jean Castex	2027-04-30	0.4%	$1.3K	$1.20M	B	`0x8c1faa…a93a`
Bernard Cazeneuve	2027-04-30	0.4%	$805	$1.95M	B	`0x4d5a2c…efe0`
Gérald Darmanin	2027-04-30	0.3%	$355	$1.72M	B	`0xf39142…a316`
Laurent Wauquiez	2027-04-30	0.2%	$95	$3.42M	B	`0x0b4fdc…ce06`
François Ruffin	2027-04-30	0.2%	$375	$3.03M	B	`0x4c799a…867c`
Marine Tondelier	2027-04-30	0.2%	$2.3K	$3.47M	B	`0xf88747…dd45`
Olivier Faure	2027-04-30	0.2%	$2.0K	$4.95M	B	`0xbac8d3…4b54`
Ségolène Royal	2027-04-30	0.2%	$1.6K	$5.24M	B	`0x34ed4a…a136`
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan	2027-04-30	0.2%	$4.1K	$4.49M	B	`0x637a24…c47a`
Michel Barnier	2027-04-30	0.2%	$567	$5.04M	B	`0x6ccebb…7921`
Juan Branco	2027-04-30	0.2%	$2.3K	$1.87M	B	`0xca3f48…d855`
Clémence Guetté	2027-04-30	0.2%	$310	$3.95M	B	`0x177955…11d3`
Xavier Bertrand	2027-04-30	0.1%	$18K	$5.09M	B	`0x06a27c…262d`
Fabien Roussel	2027-04-30	0.1%	$1.6K	$3.85M	B	`0x6ad632…3842`
François Asselineau	2027-04-30	0.1%	$6.7K	$5.45M	B	`0xaba4bb…34fc`
Clémentine Autain	2027-04-30	0.1%	$52K	$4.74M	B	`0x2bf80d…caf0`
Valérie Pécresse	2027-04-30	0.1%	$560	$3.88M	B	`0x2859bb…1c90`
François Bayrou	2027-04-30	0.1%	$3.8K	$5.70M	B	`0x3a8209…c594`
Élisabeth Borne	2027-04-30	0.1%	$5.6K	$5.24M	B	`0x0b298a…e788`
Yaël Braun-Pivet	2027-04-30	0.1%	$4.5K	$5.49M	B	`0xfd431e…0bd2`
Carole Delga	2027-04-30	0.1%	$695	$4.52M	B	`0xcd050c…533b`
Manuel Bompard	2027-04-30	0.1%	$2.5K	$4.61M	B	`0xa6c384…77ae`
Mathilde Panot	2027-04-30	0.1%	$3.5K	$6.20M	B	`0x06ea9c…1a64`
Karim Bouamrane	2027-04-30	0.1%	$142	$53K	B	`0x53e78c…51a6`
Lucie Castets	2027-04-30	0.1%	$5.5K	$28K	B	`0xac9719…b98f`
Yannick Jadot	2027-04-30	0.1%	$1.8K	$161K	B	`0xae0bce…1a12`
François Baroin	2027-04-30	0.1%	$25K	$182K	B	`0xc9763b…3293`
Marion Maréchal	2027-04-30	0.1%	$1.5K	$91K	B	`0xf9f405…a479`
Another person	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xb79718…6332`
Person J	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xf273da…8f7c`
Person K	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x467ec6…e7dd`
Person L	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x5fa99b…2907`
Person M	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xcb6397…7b5c`
Person N	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x754ab4…e920`
Person O	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xf294fb…5115`
Person P	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xd148a6…807d`
Person Q	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xdefabb…af72`
Person R	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x0bfccc…61ec`
Person S	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xc2331a…6f29`
Person T	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x21998f…4994`
Person U	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x93670b…41c3`
Person V	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xa709ff…5be7`
Person W	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x0dc499…3dc0`
Person X	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xdd46ac…5ba3`
Person Y	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x43c54f…f234`
Person Z	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x6f3546…075f`
Person AA	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x46d7a8…0cce`
Person AB	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xbce6c4…c907`
Person AC	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x9d81d9…1dea`
Person AD	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x35d374…3ba0`
Person AE	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xd3ddd5…bc52`
Person AF	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x4f7b1b…6b74`
Person AG	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x1aee11…20f0`
Person AH	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x5d897d…2109`
Person AI	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x6b58f4…8a21`
Person AJ	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xc1c039…9d34`
Person AK	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x4b6382…858e`
Person AL	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x835662…652d`
Person AM	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x6d5a07…fb29`
Person AN	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xcdf910…f1c6`
Person AO	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xde216b…f345`
Person AP	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x866ba6…63e9`
Person AQ	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xbb9fd6…8f78`
Person AR	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x0455d2…330e`
Person AS	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x215522…03d9`
Person AT	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x109bfc…0354`
Person AU	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xbf4554…9598`
Person AV	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xfa4668…f7d6`
Person AW	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xa766ec…2e91`
Person AX	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x7b85cd…1e1a`
Person AY	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x774e20…0ccf`
Person AZ	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x2653b3…1946`
Person BA	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x7cb1f3…ce9f`
Person BB	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x43038e…8e99`
Person BC	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x794155…cabe`
Person BD	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x869da6…ff35`
Person BE	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xc8f1ef…eda7`
Person BF	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xc797bb…cb34`
Person BG	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xa638e2…81ce`
Person BH	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xda408d…ca50`
Person BI	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x39c094…e0af`
Person BJ	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xcb126d…7e0f`
Person BK	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x034061…bb8f`
Person BL	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x76377b…0e77`
Person BM	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x96f807…7326`
Person BN	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xe5ab13…9df5`
Person BO	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x734040…8034`
Person BP	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x66cb99…13b6`
Person BQ	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x60acb7…b27f`
Person BR	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xf12cf4…d43e`
Person BS	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x9fdcab…3071`
Person BT	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xce7a6f…62ba`
Person BU	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xad033f…e7d2`
Person BV	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xd4c516…2fdc`
Person BW	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x47f36a…d53f`
Person BX	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x40ba73…d2d6`
Person BY	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xbd7336…73f6`
Person BZ	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xc47892…99a1`
Person CA	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x0580da…1d4d`
Person CB	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xbd9213…270d`
Person CC	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x8e9675…5106`
Person CD	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x6b7c6a…7721`
Person CE	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x68ff14…c925`
Person CF	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x93f57e…c68e`
Person CG	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x4b9a25…0985`
Person CH	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xf1a040…2721`
Person CI	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xac1d81…9a89`
Person CJ	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xc93d79…6f4d`
Person CK	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x402158…84e8`
Person CL	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x367add…4958`
Person CM	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x5d04dc…87a9`
Person CN	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x725b37…1f4b`
Person CO	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0xae4dcb…d852`
Person CP	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x8e8b98…09f8`
Person CQ	2027-04-30	0.0%	—	—	B	`0x15240f…898d`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	not provided	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 128 markets · share this text

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned

sources (2) · stated precedence rule

interieur.gouv.fr source of record venue-listed
Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/) from rules text · editorial

recent wire items

2026-07-29T10:36:04+00:00 volume-spike
Castets 2027 French presidency priced out at 0% 0% · $32K 24h
- Polymarket prices Lucie Castets winning the 2027 French presidency at 0%, effectively eliminated.
- 52% of all-time volume arrived in 24h, making this the contract's busiest single session.
- Surge likely reflects a confirming datapoint, polling, candidacy withdrawal, or party realignment news.
- Resolves on 2027 election outcome; current price implies no viable path to victory.
2026-07-29T10:36:04+00:00 volume-spike
Bouamrane 2027 French presidency priced out at 0% 0% · $26K 24h
- Polymarket prices Karim Bouamrane winning the 2027 French presidency at 0%, market has ruled him out.
- 32% of all-time volume hit in 24h on a contract with $80K lifetime handle, meaningful single-day flow.
- Volume arrives alongside the Castets 0% spike, suggesting a broad reassessment of French left-field candidates.
- Resolves on the 2027 French presidential result; both PS-adjacent candidates now priced at zero.
2026-07-25T09:43:16+00:00 volume-spike
Jadot 2027 French presidential bid priced out at 0% 0% · $79K 24h
- Polymarket prices Yannick Jadot at 0%, the market has effectively ruled out his path to the Élysée.
- $79K in 24h is 33% of all-time volume, a meaningful re-engagement with a contract already near zero.
- Volume at a floor price typically reflects either closing of residual positions or traders locking in the near-zero outcome.
- French presidential election is scheduled for spring 2027; contract resolves on first or second round winner.
2026-07-08T10:14:29+00:00 volume-spike
Traders stack Le Pen 2027 conviction at 27% 27% · $363K 24h
- Polymarket prices Le Pen winning the presidency at 27%, meaningful tail risk, not consensus.
- 24h volume $363K is 29% of all-time, reflecting a fresh wave of directional interest.
- Likely catalyzed by companion ballot-eligibility spike (Spike 5) resolving her candidacy near 89%.
- Resolves after the 2027 French presidential election final round.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-french-presidential-election/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-french-presidential-election`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("next-french-presidential-election")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-GD1GGR4710",
  "slug": "next-french-presidential-election",
  "question": "Will a new French president be elected in the next French Presidential Election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "france",
    "2027",
    "executive-office",
    "geopolitical"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 128,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 115752980,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 68,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "interieur.gouv.fr",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "interieur.gouv.fr",
      "url": "https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/)",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-23T21:11:14.426158+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →