Will the Workers' Party win the most seats in the next Brazil Senate election? [ resolves 2026-10-04 (73D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 39 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partido Liberal (PL) | 2026-10-04 | 73.0% | $380 | $257K | B | 0xbd30a9…716d | ||
| Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (MDB) | 2026-10-04 | 14.3% | $166 | $6.9K | B | 0x10ad33…eeed | ||
| Partido Social Democrático (PSD) | 2026-10-04 | 0.2% | — | $2.6K | B | 0xd8d831…c01d | ||
| Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) | 2026-10-04 | 0.2% | — | $2.9K | B | 0x654637…efb1 | ||
| União Brasil (UNIÃO) | 2026-10-04 | 0.2% | — | $2.9K | B | 0x81ccb2…1ae8 | ||
| Progressistas (PP) | 2026-10-04 | 0.2% | — | $2.5K | B | 0x78cb3a…a808 | ||
| Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB) | 2026-10-04 | 0.2% | — | $2.3K | B | 0x47d99c…34d4 | ||
| Podemos (PODEMOS) | 2026-10-04 | 0.2% | — | $2.6K | B | 0xd97e41…43e1 | ||
| Republicanos (REPUBLICANOS) | 2026-10-04 | 0.2% | — | $3.3K | B | 0x28c1fe…40d5 | ||
| Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB) | 2026-10-04 | 0.2% | — | $2.4K | B | 0x8e0e6f…cbd2 | ||
| Partido Novo (NOVO) | 2026-10-04 | 0.2% | — | $2.7K | B | 0x6a2bd9…c93b | ||
| Partido Democrático Trabalhista (PDT) | 2026-10-04 | 0.1% | — | $2.0K | B | 0xdae3a5…4420 | ||
| Another party | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x17eabc…4756 | ||
| Party A (A) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5e9383…d610 | ||
| Party B (B) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf6b43f…266e | ||
| Party C (C) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc38f6c…d2b5 | ||
| Party D (D) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe0fe67…b8b3 | ||
| Party E (E) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7d9514…27c7 | ||
| Party F (F) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd42181…7428 | ||
| Party G (G) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xaa4fa2…711d | ||
| Party H (H) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe878a7…4db0 | ||
| Party I (I) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd009b2…6ff5 | ||
| Party J (J) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xdd7ee0…b07c | ||
| Party K (K) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7ecb6b…b265 | ||
| Party L (L) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe9b93f…2e2b | ||
| Party M (M) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd6a4ef…2ce8 | ||
| Party N (N) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf16057…2f74 | ||
| Party O (O) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xde234c…a071 | ||
| Party P (P) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7c14c7…146e | ||
| Party Q (Q) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x690a95…53d8 | ||
| Party R (R) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf23ba2…15df | ||
| Party S (S) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1e1b46…0898 | ||
| Party T (T) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb7f319…800d | ||
| Party U (U) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe28088…7ee4 | ||
| Party V (V) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf97872…42ba | ||
| Party W (W) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x70ff28…8dae | ||
| Party X (X) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe31bb1…adcd | ||
| Party Y (Y) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xee2c81…bd68 | ||
| Party Z (Z) | 2026-10-04 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1f92cc…cb3b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate election.
Only seats contested in the next Brazilian Senate election will be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
platform source field
polymarket.description → www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes sources (3) · stated precedence rule
- tse.jus.br source of record venue-listed
- Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) from rules text · editorial
- www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-won/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-won |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-won") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3N9BT0B4W8",
"slug": "next-brazil-senate-election-most-seats-won",
"question": "Will the Workers' Party win the most seats in the next Brazil Senate election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"brazil",
"senate",
"2026",
"seat-distribution"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 39,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 289743,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 78,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "tse.jus.br",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "tse.jus.br",
"url": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}