Nebraska Senate Election Winner [ resolved 2026-11-04 ]
Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Person B | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x009bc1…a49b | ||
| Person C | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2a63d3…1091 | ||
| Person D | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x06b64c…32c4 | ||
| Person E | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x995e36…fd5f | ||
| Person F | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd439b8…0d3d | ||
| Person G | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x53bcbf…92a9 | ||
| Person H | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3ca179…b4be | ||
| Person I | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x72a309…a05c | ||
| Person J | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6c6bcc…1c0f | ||
| A candidate not listed above | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1646f4…480d | ||
| The Republicans | 2026-11-04 | 100.0% | $88 | $78K | C | 0x71e9f5…53dd | ||
| The Democrats | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | $40 | $87K | C | 0x12ac47…7597 | ||
| An independent | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | — | $22K | C | 0x555474…b9db |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Nebraska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
| NO | Will the Democrats win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
| YES | Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (3 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Traders pile into Nebraska Senate as GOP odds hold at 74% 74% · $419K 24h
- At 74%, Polymarket prices Nebraska as a likely Republican hold with meaningful residual risk.
- $419K in 24h, 35% of all-time, marks the heaviest single-day session on this contract.
- Surge likely tied to candidate-field clarity or independent threat reassessment in the state.
- Resolves on the November 2026 election result.
- Independent Nebraska Senate bid stays a coin-flip near 25% 25% · $268K 24h
- At 25%, Polymarket treats an independent Senate winner as a live but uphill scenario.
- $268K in 24h, 33% of all-time, mirrors the concurrent Republican-leg spike, suggesting paired positioning.
- Nebraska's unusual political environment keeps a third-path outcome meaningfully priced.
- Resolves on the November 2026 election result.
- Traders pile into Nebraska GOP Senate line at 76% 76% · $461K 24h
- Polymarket prices Nebraska Republican Senate win at 76%, near-identical to the Kalshi read.
- $461K in 24h is 40% of the contract's all-time volume, the highest all-time share in this cluster.
- Cross-venue price alignment at 75-76% signals a stable consensus under heavy two-platform flow.
- Resolves on Nebraska 2026 Senate race; independent candidate viability is the swing variable.
- Betting picks up on an independent Nebraska Senate upset at 25% 25% · $300K 24h
- Polymarket prices an independent Nebraska Senate win at 25%, a meaningful long-shot.
- $300K in 24h equals 39% of all-time contract volume, the second-highest all-time share here.
- With the GOP leg at 76%, the market implies a near-zero Democratic path and an active independent race.
- Resolves on Nebraska 2026 Senate result; independent candidate fundraising or polling could reprice fast.
- Buyers back Nebraska Senate Republicans at 70% 70% · $90K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republican victory at 70%, competitive but not safe territory for the GOP.
- $90K in 24h volume represents 37% of all-time, the largest single-day surge for this contract.
- Nebraska Senate drawing fresh capital alongside Kansas suggests broad reassessment of plains-state races.
- Resolves on the Nebraska Senate general election in November 2026.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/nebraska-senate-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/nebraska-senate-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("nebraska-senate-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-CY3W5Z2793",
"slug": "nebraska-senate-election-winner",
"question": "Nebraska Senate Election Winner ",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"nebraska",
"us-senate",
"2026",
"midterm"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 186237,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 60,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}