Will the winner of the NC-09 House election be determined by November 3, 2026? [ resolved 2026-11-04 ]
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 8 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another party | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x222f05…7b3d | ||
| Will A win the NC-09 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x813cbb…a29f | ||
| Will B win the NC-09 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1cec24…2cf5 | ||
| Will C win the NC-09 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x54dc90…7dcf | ||
| Will D win the NC-09 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x559971…9120 | ||
| Will E win the NC-09 House seat | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x23e9f0…f8b9 | ||
| The Democratic Party | 2026-11-04 | 100.0% | — | $7.1K | B | 0xdc23b5…9ebb | ||
| The Republican Party | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | — | $9.6K | B | 0x31727e…5a00 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
fec.gov venue-listed Federal Election Commission committed source https://www.fec.gov/ from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat? | polymarket | 2026-11-05 | 100% |
| NO | Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat? | polymarket | 2026-11-05 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Republicans favored in NC-09 with buyers backing the lead 69% · $45K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republicans winning NC-09 at 69%, the mirror of the Democratic contract, confirming GOP lean.
- $45K in 24h volume is 41% of all-time, a concentrated single-session bet relative to lifetime turnover.
- Paired volume across both NC-09 contracts today suggests active two-sided positioning on this specific race.
- Resolves on 2026 midterm election night for NC-09.
- Democrats trail in NC-09 as fresh volume tests the underdog price 32% · $88K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democrats winning NC-09 at 32%, the market assigns Republicans a clear edge.
- $87.9K in 24h volume is 49% of all-time, nearly half the contract's lifetime book flowed today.
- NC-09 is an active midterm battleground; fresh attention often precedes a poll, filing, or candidate news.
- Resolves after the 2026 midterm election results for NC's 9th congressional district.
- Republicans stay favored in NC-09 as volume tests 68% 68% · $42K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republicans winning NC-09 at 68%, a comfortable but not decisive lead for the GOP.
- 40% of all-time volume in 24h pairs with the Democratic NC-09 contract spike, reflecting two-sided action on the same race.
- Combined volume across both NC-09 contracts signals this district is drawing serious late-cycle attention.
- Resolves on the certified winner of the NC-09 House general election.
- Democrats trail in NC-09 as buyers back the underdog side 31% · $73K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democrats winning NC-09 at 31%, a clear underdog stance with the seat leaning Republican.
- 24h volume of $73K is 44% of all-time, a notable single-session concentration in a district-level race.
- Activity likely driven by late polling, candidate news, or early-vote data shifting attention to this competitive district.
- Resolves on the certified winner of the NC-09 House general election.
- Republicans hold 67% in NC-09 through active trading 67% · $39K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republicans at 67% in NC-09, a solid but soft favorite, far from certain.
- 38% of all-time volume cleared in 24 hours, consistent with the parallel Democratic-side contract activity.
- The paired volume across both NC-09 contracts points to a contested-district repricing event, not one-sided flow.
- Resolves on the certified NC-09 House election result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/nc-09-house-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/nc-09-house-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("nc-09-house-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-0PM0Y1S600",
"slug": "nc-09-house-election-winner",
"question": "Will the winner of the NC-09 House election be determined by November 3, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"2026",
"nc-09",
"house-race",
"us-congress"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 8,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 16667,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Election Commission",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "fec.gov",
"url": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Election Commission",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.fec.gov/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}