Will the Minnesota Senate election result in a winner by the scheduled election date? [ resolved 2026-11-04 ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Democrats | 2026-11-04 | 100.0% | — | $23K | C | 0x44b642…2b14 | ||
| The Republicans | — | 7.0% | — | $11K | C | 0xae1d21…2e06 | ||
| Person A | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x699fe6…07a1 | ||
| Person B | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf5b959…7f68 | ||
| Person C | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd9e047…1a91 | ||
| Person D | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x7e2d5c…c668 | ||
| Person E | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x62fb3e…0322 | ||
| Person F | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x14660f…a6a2 | ||
| Person G | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6609e8…23c7 | ||
| Person H | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf57382…e7b7 | ||
| Person I | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x04b183…ad70 | ||
| Person J | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbd6d06…2726 | ||
| A candidate not listed above | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2c9f33…c12a |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Minnesota Democrats hold the Senate seat with strong odds at 92% 92% · $185K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democrats retaining the Minnesota Senate seat at 92%, near-certainty territory.
- 28% of all-time volume in one session as Election Night closes out open positions on called races.
- At 92%, the market treats this as effectively settled; residual volume reflects final position unwinds.
- Resolves on certified 2026 Minnesota Senate results.
- Odds hold near certainty on Democrats keeping Minnesota Senate 94% · $130K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democrats at 94%, the market treats a Republican flip of this Minnesota seat as a near-impossibility.
- 24h volume of $130K equals 25% of all-time flow, suggesting a fresh wave of participants locking in the consensus.
- Minnesota has not elected a Republican senator in decades; the 94% price reflects both structural and polling reality.
- Resolves on 2026 general election results.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/minnesota-senate-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/minnesota-senate-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("minnesota-senate-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-3Z75P7P992",
"slug": "minnesota-senate-election-winner",
"question": "Will the Minnesota Senate election result in a winner by the scheduled election date?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"minnesota",
"us-senate",
"2026",
"competitive-state"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 33700,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 60,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}