Will a Michigan Senate election winner be determined by the next election cycle? [ resolved 2026-11-04 ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Democrats | 2026-11-04 | 100.0% | $613 | $105K | C | 0xbfeb6d…5bd4 | ||
| The Republicans | 2026-11-04 | 0.0% | $8.9K | $63K | C | 0x3fd189…cf2d | ||
| Person A | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf18e96…b155 | ||
| Person B | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x718183…f7ca | ||
| Person C | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x03df8e…0255 | ||
| Person D | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x31e9df…a377 | ||
| Person E | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa24d35…59a6 | ||
| Person F | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8706a8…fb10 | ||
| Person G | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0bb7fc…fb06 | ||
| Person H | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6c13a1…e0ce | ||
| Person I | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x41c13c…7af2 | ||
| Person J | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc0e906…8d4c | ||
| A candidate not listed above | — | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x63136e…fe6f |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 0% |
| YES | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-11-04 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (2 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Fresh volume returns to Democrats winning Michigan Senate 100% · $3M 24h
- Polymarket prices Democratic Michigan Senate win at 100%, no residual Republican probability remains.
- 39% of all-time volume hit in 24h, reflecting broad late-cycle confirmation trading.
- Michigan was a marquee battleground; ceiling price signals live returns or early vote data resolved the race.
- Resolves on certified Michigan 2026 Senate outcome.
- Heavy trading tests GOP's long-shot Michigan Senate bid 20% · $763K 24h
- At 20%, Polymarket assigns Democrats a commanding four-in-five shot at holding Michigan.
- 30% of all-time volume hit in 24h, $763K, flagging a sharp jump in attention.
- Michigan Senate draws fresh scrutiny a year out as GOP recruitment and map strategy sharpen.
- Resolves on the November 2026 election result.
- Michigan Senate GOP long-shot line draws heavy trading 20% · $786K 24h
- Polymarket prices Republican Michigan Senate win at 20%, a clear underdog stance.
- $786K in 24h volume equals 33% of the contract's entire all-time traded value.
- Paired with the Democratic side (Spike 2), both legs are seeing synchronized election-eve flow.
- Resolves on Michigan 2026 Senate outcome; Democratic incumbent positioning is the backdrop.
- Democratic Michigan Senate odds stay near 80% under surge 80% · $769K 24h
- Polymarket marks Democratic Michigan Senate win at 80%, a heavy favorite read.
- $769K traded in 24h, 28% of all-time volume, running in lockstep with the GOP leg.
- Matching volume across both legs points to new entrants picking sides, not just arbitrage.
- Resolves on Michigan 2026 Senate result; late polling or endorsement news could shift the line.
- Democrats hold a wide lead in Michigan Senate betting 78% · $746K 24h
- Polymarket prices Democrats at 78%, a commanding favorite reflecting strong structural advantage.
- $746K traded in 24h, equal to 35% of all-time volume, marking a major late-cycle commitment.
- Election-eve money concentrating here signals the race is viewed as a near-lock but not fully settled.
- Resolves on Michigan 2026 midterm Senate result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/michigan-senate-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/michigan-senate-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("michigan-senate-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-P8B8CLLCB5",
"slug": "michigan-senate-election-winner",
"question": "Will a Michigan Senate election winner be determined by the next election cycle?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"michigan",
"us-senate",
"2026-election",
"partisan-outcome"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 168348,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 60,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}