Will a Republican win the Michigan Governor Primary? [ resolves 2026-08-04 (12D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 35 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John James | 2026-08-04 | 88.0% | $946 | $34K | A | 0xbc63ab…221c | ||
| Perry Johnson | 2026-08-04 | 13.0% | $348 | $31K | A | 0xd4607b…fdf9 | ||
| Ralph Rebandt | 2026-08-04 | 0.3% | — | $2.0K | A | 0x00ece3…608c | ||
| Mike Cox | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | — | $7.5K | A | 0xe67038…e7da | ||
| Evan Space | 2026-08-04 | 0.2% | — | $2.0K | A | 0xf2ad7d…980e | ||
| Anthony Hudson | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | — | $1.9K | A | 0xd52565…b017 | ||
| Tom Leonard | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | — | $1.9K | A | 0xa5e468…d8a6 | ||
| Aric Nesbitt | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | — | $2.5K | A | 0x4a0ead…d990 | ||
| William Null | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | — | $1.8K | A | 0x262962…2c55 | ||
| Karla Wagner | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | — | $1.6K | A | 0x059da3…bfcf | ||
| Joyce Gipson | 2026-08-04 | 0.1% | — | $1.2K | A | 0x460bfa…93db | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xcb5222…a34d | ||
| Candidate D | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9df4d6…35e5 | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1fe9d9…2879 | ||
| Candidate F | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb9e429…7f31 | ||
| Candidate G | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdd94d6…3b16 | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9e2a94…ec8e | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf555d8…b3da | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7d1c98…26c1 | ||
| Candidate K | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x54dc04…f836 | ||
| Candidate L | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x2bed01…e57e | ||
| Candidate M | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdad1d0…ae12 | ||
| Candidate N | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x278737…c97f | ||
| Candidate O | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x2baeb8…9dc8 | ||
| Candidate P | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x69f6ce…0bfe | ||
| Candidate Q | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1b47ab…bada | ||
| Candidate R | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x04ec16…8ae7 | ||
| Candidate S | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1feb30…182f | ||
| Candidate T | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa53c2f…5b98 | ||
| Candidate U | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x3d5e54…c285 | ||
| Candidate V | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x52abd6…878e | ||
| Candidate W | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9f886c…2694 | ||
| Candidate X | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x11cb56…3417 | ||
| Candidate Y | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf6ed2f…e52f | ||
| Candidate Z | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x131252…6149 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Michigan, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (1) · stated precedence rule
- Michigan Republican Party source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/michigan-governor-republican-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/michigan-governor-republican-primary-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("michigan-governor-republican-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-9PML43F861",
"slug": "michigan-governor-republican-primary-winner",
"question": "Will a Republican win the Michigan Governor Primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"michigan",
"republican-primary",
"2026",
"governor-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 35,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 87125,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 81,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Michigan Republican Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Michigan Republican Party",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}