Will a Republican win the Michigan Governor Primary? [ resolved 2026-08-04 ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 35 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John James | 2026-08-04 | 100.0% | $946 | $34K | A | 0xbc63ab…221c | ||
| Mike Cox | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | $7.5K | A | 0xe67038…e7da | ||
| Anthony Hudson | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | $1.9K | A | 0xd52565…b017 | ||
| Tom Leonard | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | $1.9K | A | 0xa5e468…d8a6 | ||
| Aric Nesbitt | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | $2.5K | A | 0x4a0ead…d990 | ||
| William Null | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | $1.8K | A | 0x262962…2c55 | ||
| Ralph Rebandt | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | $2.0K | A | 0x00ece3…608c | ||
| Karla Wagner | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | $1.6K | A | 0x059da3…bfcf | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xcb5222…a34d | ||
| Evan Space | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | $2.0K | A | 0xf2ad7d…980e | ||
| Perry Johnson | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | $348 | $31K | A | 0xd4607b…fdf9 | ||
| Joyce Gipson | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | $1.2K | A | 0x460bfa…93db | ||
| Candidate D | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9df4d6…35e5 | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1fe9d9…2879 | ||
| Candidate F | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb9e429…7f31 | ||
| Candidate G | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdd94d6…3b16 | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9e2a94…ec8e | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf555d8…b3da | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7d1c98…26c1 | ||
| Candidate K | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x54dc04…f836 | ||
| Candidate L | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x2bed01…e57e | ||
| Candidate M | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdad1d0…ae12 | ||
| Candidate N | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x278737…c97f | ||
| Candidate O | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x2baeb8…9dc8 | ||
| Candidate P | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x69f6ce…0bfe | ||
| Candidate Q | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1b47ab…bada | ||
| Candidate R | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x04ec16…8ae7 | ||
| Candidate S | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1feb30…182f | ||
| Candidate T | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa53c2f…5b98 | ||
| Candidate U | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x3d5e54…c285 | ||
| Candidate V | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x52abd6…878e | ||
| Candidate W | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9f886c…2694 | ||
| Candidate X | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x11cb56…3417 | ||
| Candidate Y | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf6ed2f…e52f | ||
| Candidate Z | 2026-08-04 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x131252…6149 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Michigan, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.
If no 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (1) · stated precedence rule
Michigan Republican Party committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will Ralph Rebandt win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Mike Cox win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Evan Space win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Tom Leonard win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Karla Wagner win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Aric Nesbitt win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will William Null win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Anthony Hudson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Joyce Gipson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| NO | Will Perry Johnson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 0% |
| YES | Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? | polymarket | 2026-08-05 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (11 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/michigan-governor-republican-primary-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/michigan-governor-republican-primary-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("michigan-governor-republican-primary-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-9PML43F861",
"slug": "michigan-governor-republican-primary-winner",
"question": "Will a Republican win the Michigan Governor Primary?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"michigan",
"republican-primary",
"2026",
"governor-race"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 35,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 87125,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 81,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Michigan Republican Party",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Michigan Republican Party",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}